Trump watch
Trump's energy-relevant posts as plain text, what each means for oil, and the archive of past episodes.
Trump as a first-order driver of Canadian differentials: his energy-relevant posts as plain text, what each one means for oil, and the archive of past episodes with dates and market impact.
Read this page as the policy risk channel: Trump's energy posts move markets on sentiment first, and the archive below reconstructs what actually happened to differentials in past episodes so you can separate the noise from the move. Truth Social has no public API and blocks scrapers, so post text is quoted via media reporting, not direct post links. Each item carries its date.
Trump is a first-order driver of the Canadian differential because tariff threats and energy policy talk reprice Western Canadian Select (WCS) treatment risk directly, as the 2025 episodes showed with the forward discount whipsawing between $12 and $16 per barrel. The 10% energy tariff rate, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) exemptions, and the export ban being ruled out are the hard facts; the posts are the volatility around them. When tariff talk heats up, TMW is the instrument that prices it first.
The feed
2 energy-relevant posts, Sep 22, 2026 · 10:04 PM MDT to Sep 24, 2026 · 6:36 AM MDT. The poller checks Truth Social hourly; this page reflects the feed at build time.
Flagged by the feed as potentially market-relevant (tariff / export-ban / sanctions / SPR language).
Sep 24, 2026 · 6:36 AM MDT
RT: https://truthsocial.com/users/realDonaldTrump/statuses/117326044871082645This is a survey of people in business — the S&P Flash Survey — of purchasing, manufacturing and hiring. Guess what? The report shows impressive Growth.
Composite Index — Services + Manufacturing, 62 month high!
Manufacturing — 53 month high!
Services — 52 month high!
This is the “HOTTEST” Economy in the World — and the Media is working overtime for the Democrats to convince Voters that the …
Why it matters: Tariffs on Canadian crude were the 2025 differential shock — new tariff talk reprices WCS treatment risk.
Archive: the Feb 2025 tariff episode — what was threatened and what happened to diffs — is reconstructed below.
oil gas prices tariff barrel
Verbatim & source
RT: https://truthsocial.com/users/realDonaldTrump/statuses/117326044871082645This is a survey of people in business — the S&P Flash Survey — of purchasing, manufacturing and hiring. Guess what? The report shows impressive Growth.
Composite Index — Services + Manufacturing, 62 month high!
Manufacturing — 53 month high!
Services — 52 month high!
This is the “HOTTEST” Economy in the World — and the Media is working overtime for the Democrats to convince Voters that the opposite is true.
For working people, a “HOT” Economy is good because it gives them more wage leverage, and more flexibility to get better jobs.
The Media is trying to cover up how well things are going before the Midterms, just to help Democrats. The truth is something everyone should be celebrating. The Economy IS putting Americans back to work. Real median incomes are the highest on record!
Let's not forget: Biden inflation in August 2022 was over 8 percent.
If you ignore the (predictable) boomerang ‘growth’ Biden got immediately after the COVID period, Trump's Second Term would be the fastest Growth since 2015.
We’re supposed to stop all of this momentum, halt all this progress, to turn things over to the bozos who will simply launch investigations, and try to reverse it all?
Americans are getting richer. Businesses are investing and growing.
Democrat and NeverTrump Predictions that turned out to be WRONG:
— Businesses are NOT abandoning the U.S.
— Deporting illegals did NOT tank the Economy.
— Tariffs didn’t slow down the Economy.
— Cutting the Federal workforce didn’t hurt us either.
— Other countries didn’t “leave us behind.”
— Oil didn’t go to $200 a barrel.
Gas prices will be coming down and, if you stick with us, America will continue to be the strongest, freest Country on God’s Green Earth!
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/ed177f50167b4203ac490a961ea706be
Posted 2026-09-24T12:36:46.270Z · truthsocial.com · id 117326047233268228
Sep 22, 2026 · 10:04 PM MDT
Azerbaijan's Hajiyev to Newsmax: Trump Peacemaker, Iran Deal Possible: https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/azerbaijan-ilham-aliyev-armenia/2026/09/14/id/1269433/
Why it matters: Iranian barrels and sanction risk price straight into the sour complex.
iran
Verbatim & source
Azerbaijan's Hajiyev to Newsmax: Trump Peacemaker, Iran Deal Possible: https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/azerbaijan-ilham-aliyev-armenia/2026/09/14/id/1269433/
Posted 2026-09-23T04:04:24.091Z · truthsocial.com · id 117318370203435194
Archive
Dated episodes with market impact where sourced. All facts paraphrased; conflict claims are attribute-framed as reported.
The tariff episode
- On Nov 25, 2024, President-elect Trump posted on Truth Social that on Jan 20 he would sign an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on ALL products from Canada and Mexico (plus an additional 10% on China), citing fentanyl and illegal border crossings. The post said the tariff would stay 'until such time as drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our country.'
2024-11-25 The Canadian Press (via Canadian Trends)
- The Nov 25, 2024 tariff threat moved FX immediately: the US dollar jumped over 2% against the Mexican peso and hit a four-year high against the Canadian dollar, as analysts warned the proposed tariffs would violate the USMCA Trump himself signed in 2020.
2024-11-27 East & Partners
- On Jan 21, 2025, discounts on heavy WCS for Q2 delivery widened to $13.75/bbl, up 50 cents on the day, after Trump said he planned to impose tariffs of as much as 25% on Canadian crude. The report noted prices had rallied the prior day 'on signs Trump wouldn't impose tariffs on Canadian crude,' showing the two-way whipsaw.
2025-01-21 MNI (Market News International)
- In January 2025 Trump publicly threatened Russia with 'taxes, tariffs, and sanctions' if no Ukraine deal was struck, and Putin responded proposing a meeting on Ukraine and energy prices — positioning both sides for negotiations and adding oil-market volatility.
2025-01-27 Mettis Global News (citing Reuters)
- RBN Energy reported that the WCS forward discount was 'whipsawed in recent days as the threat of a 25% tariff on all exports from Canada by the newly minted Trump administration has waxed and waned'; as of Jan 10 the forward discount was ($12)/bbl to ($16)/bbl for Feb-Oct 2025 delivery months, 'a price range considered narrow by historical standards for this time of year.'
2025-01-30 RBN Energy
- On Feb 1, 2025, Trump signed three IEEPA executive orders: 25% tariffs on all products of Canada and Mexico (effective Feb 4, 12:01 a.m. ET), with a lower 10% rate for Canadian 'energy products' (defined to include crude oil, natural gas, NGLs, refined products), and 10% on China. No exclusion process and no duty drawback were provided; a retaliation clause threatened higher duties if countries retaliated.
2025-02-02 EY Tax News Update
- On Feb 3, 2025, Trump agreed to pause the Canada and Mexico tariffs for one month after calls with President Sheinbaum (Mexico agreed to send 10,000 National Guard troops to the border) and two calls with PM Trudeau (Canada committed new border-security resources). Trump confirmed the pause in Truth Social posts; Canada's planned retaliatory tariffs were also paused 30 days.
2025-02-03 NPR
- After the Feb 3 pause, WCS for March delivery narrowed to $13.50 under WTI on Feb 6, 2025, and Reuters reported that 'Canadian heavy crude prices have held up remarkably well' in the face of the tariff plan. TD Cowen said in a note: 'Investors believed a tariff announcement would immediately pressure the WCS heavy differential, but that has not proven to be the case,' with the discount 'not far off of what was seen prior to Trump's election.'
2025-02-06 Reuters (summarized by Finimize)
- On March 4, 2025, the tariffs took effect (25% most Canadian goods, 10% energy products) and the WCS discount for April delivery widened to $13.70 under WTI, its widest since Feb 6. Energy analyst Rory Johnston said 'the threat of U.S. tariffs has been slowly creeping into the price of Canadian heavy crude over the last month' and warned that sustained tariffs 'will have a negative effect on investment appetite in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin.' Canada exports roughly 4 million bpd of oil to the U.S., about 90% of its crude exports.
2025-03-04 Reuters (summarized by Finimize)
- On March 6, 2025, Trump amended the tariff orders to exempt imports qualifying for duty-free treatment under the USMCA (effective March 7), announced via a Truth Social post after speaking with Mexico's Sheinbaum ('This Agreement is until April 2nd'). The same day Commerce Secretary Lutnick said the reprieve would 'likely cover all USMCA-compliant goods and services,' telling CNBC: 'if you lived under Donald Trump's US-Mexico-Canada agreement, you will get a reprieve from these tariffs now.'
2025-03-06 Reuters (via HOT 96) and Devdiscourse
- On March 6, 2025, Bloomberg reported that Trump signed orders paring back the 25% IEEPA tariffs for USMCA-compliant goods until April 2, with Canadian potash facing a lower 10% duty. A White House official said some 62% of Canadian imports would be subject to the tariffs under historic data, 'with much of that energy products subject to a 10% rate.' Trump warned automakers he would not sign another extension: 'I told them that's it, this is a short-term deal.'
2025-03-06 Bloomberg (via Bloomberg Tax)
- On April 2, 2025 ('Liberation Day'), Trump announced universal 10% and reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners, but Canada and Mexico did not appear on the reciprocal list because Trump had 'already levied a 25% tariff on all imports from the two nations excluding those items that fall under the USMCA'; the existing IEEPA tariffs on non-USMCA Canadian/Mexican goods remained in place.
2025-04-03 Mint (livemint.com)
- On July 31, 2025, Trump signed an executive order increasing the tariff on Canadian goods from 25% to 35%, effective Aug 1, citing 'Canada's continued inaction and retaliation.' Energy and potash remained at the lower 10% rate per the CRS tariff-actions timeline (10% on energy imports effective March 4, 2025).
2025-07-31 Reuters (via 102.7 WBOW)
- On Aug 22, 2025, PM Mark Carney announced Canada would drop many retaliatory tariffs to match the U.S. USMCA exemptions, saying 'Canada currently has the best trade deal with the United States.' Carney said over 85% of Canada-U.S. trade remained tariff-free and the U.S. average tariff rate on Canadian goods was 5.6%, the lowest among all U.S. trading partners. The decision followed a Thursday phone call in which Trump said, 'We are working on something. We want to be very good to Canada.'
2025-08-22 The Associated Press (via SRN News)
- In April 2026, PM Carney said the scheduled USMCA review talks were turbulent: before formal negotiations began, the U.S. asked Canada for upfront concessions (changing or scrapping dairy supply management, provincial liquor bans, the Online Streaming Act and Online News Act). Carney listed Canada's own irritants: U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos and levies on forest products.
2026-04-24 The Globe and Mail (via Ontario Legislative Library)
- On July 20-21, 2026, Trump announced 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods (energy products, potash, fish and critical minerals excluded), targeting Canada over alleged discrimination against U.S. autos, alcohol and dairy; the duty was to affect about $20 billion of U.S.-bound Canadian exports (~5% of shipments). Carney said he and Trump agreed to 'deepen and speed up' negotiations. The U.S. also opted against renewing USMCA for 16 years, subjecting the pact to annual reviews for a decade.
2026-07-21 Dow Jones (via Morningstar)
WCS differentials
- HFI Research analysis of the export-ban rumor concluded it would be disastrous for the integrated system: U.S. shale would become landlocked, commercial crude storage would fill by May, producers would shut in output — and 'if US commercial crude storage builds too fast, it will jam up Canadian crude exports. WCS-WTI differentials will widen, Canadian crude inventories will fill up.'
2026-03-19 InvestingLive (citing HFI Research)
Sanctions
- By end-March 2025, the Trump administration revoked the Biden-era general and specific oil licenses that had allowed Chevron and others to operate in Venezuela (companies had to wind up by May 27, 2025; Chevron kept only a limited 'essential operations' license). On March 24, 2025, Trump signed an executive order authorizing a 25% secondary tariff on any country importing Venezuelan oil directly or indirectly. Estimated impact: cutting Venezuelan output by 150,000-350,000 bpd.
2025-07-01 American Journal of International Law (Cambridge Core)
- Following Treasury's October 2025 designation of Russia's Lukoil and Rosneft, Chinese state-owned oil majors initially suspended Russian oil purchases, though Kpler data showed China kept buying significant volumes through smaller refiners. Chinese imports of Venezuelan oil also rose in 2025 after the U.S. revoked Chevron's general license, with Venezuela likely selling to China at a significant discount due to isolation.
2025-10-29 Atlantic Council (Energy Sanctions Dashboard)
Export ban
- On March 19, 2026, Trump officials told oil executives at an American Petroleum Institute board meeting that the administration had ruled out banning oil exports as a way to lower prices amid the escalating war with Iran. VP Vance, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum attended; Burgum told executives definitively that export restrictions were 'not under consideration.' WTI had crossed $101/bbl, up from $67 before the war began Feb 28, 2026.
2026-03-19 E&E News by Politico
Drilling & permitting
- On March 24, 2017, the Trump administration issued TransCanada a presidential permit for the Keystone XL pipeline, reversing Obama's rejection; the 1,179-mile line would have carried over 800,000 bpd of heavy crude from the Alberta oil sands to Nebraska, linking into networks feeding U.S. Gulf Coast refiners. It faced legal challenges and was halted after Biden revoked the permit in 2021.
2017-03-24 Reuters (via Hydrocarbon Processing)
- On Jan 20, 2025, Trump declared a 'national energy emergency' and said in his inaugural address: 'We will drill, baby, drill.' The same day he signed executive orders reversing Biden-era orders restricting oil and gas exploration in Alaska, lifting restrictions on drilling in the Arctic Ocean, and seeking to open 625 million acres of offshore territory to drilling by reinstating rights revoked under Biden.
2025-01-20 Juneau Empire / OilPrice.com
- On Feb 24, 2025, Trump posted on Truth Social urging the company that was building Keystone XL to 'come back to America,' pledging 'easy approvals, almost immediate start' — 'The Trump Administration is very different (from the Biden administration) – Easy approvals, almost immediate start! If not them, perhaps another Pipeline Company. We want the Keystone XL Pipeline built.' Biden had revoked the permit in 2021; TC Energy spun its oil pipeline business into South Bow Energy.
2025-02-24 Reuters (via KTWB)
- On Nov 20, 2025, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum signed the order 'Unleashing American Offshore Energy,' directing the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management to terminate Biden's 2024-2029 National OCS leasing program and develop an 11th program proposing up to 34 potential offshore lease sales across 21 areas off Alaska, 7 in the Gulf near Florida, and 6 off California.
2025-11-20 The Epoch Times (via issues4life.org repost)
- On June 5, 2026, the Trump administration held a lease sale for 689,000 acres (60 tracts) in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge — the first of four ANWR sales mandated by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The Biden administration received zero bids in its January 2025 ANWR sale of 400,000 acres, and the 2021 sale had few takers, despite USGS estimates of up to 11.8 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil.
2026-06-05 EnergyNow (citing Reuters)
SPR
- On Oct 21, 2025, the Department of Energy issued a solicitation to buy 1 million barrels of crude for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at Bryan Mound, funded by $171 million appropriated in the Working Families Tax Cut. The SPR held just over 400 million barrels of ~700 million capacity after the 2022 drawdown of 180 million barrels; purchases were limited to U.S. companies with domestically sourced crude.
2025-10-21 U.S. Department of Energy
- On Nov 12, 2025, DOE awarded the SPR contracts: ~1 million barrels from 18 offers by 6 companies, delivered to Bryan Mound Dec 1, 2025-Jan 31, 2026 — the first refill step under Trump's promise to restore the reserve to full operational capacity.
2025-11-12 U.S. Department of Energy
Other
- On Jan 23, 2025, Trump told the World Economic Forum in Davos by video: 'I'm also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.' WTI futures slid 1.1% to settle below $75/bbl and Brent slipped near $78 on the remarks. He later tied lower prices to ending the Russia-Ukraine war: 'One way to stop it quickly is for OPEC to stop making so much money and drop the price of oil.'
2025-01-23 Bloomberg (via Rigzone)
Gaps
- Truth Social has no public API and blocks scrapers; all Truth Social items here are sourced via media quoting the posts, not direct post URLs.
- RBN Energy whipsaw piece: the page shows no explicit dateline; vintage 2025-01-30 is inferred from content (post-Feb-10-forward chart, 'newly minted Trump administration', adjacent blog dated Thu 1/30/25).
- Several Reuters items are paywalled at reuters.com; the tariff/differential facts are cited via Finimize summaries of Thomson Reuters reporting and TradingView News reprints rather than primary Reuters URLs.
- Mint (livemint.com) April 2 explainer carries no explicit dateline; vintage 2025-04-03 is approximate based on content.
- AJIL/Cambridge Core item: vintage 2025-07-01 is the journal issue date (Vol. 119:3), not a precise publication day.
- Atlantic Council Energy Sanctions Dashboard is continuously updated; vintage 2025-10-29 reflects the update window containing the October 2025 Lukoil/Rosneft designation analysis.
- No credible evidence found of Trump-era discussion of banning U.S. crude exports as a pro-active policy before March 2026 — the only on-record item is the administration ruling it OUT (E&E News, 2026-03-19).
- Canada retaliatory tariffs (Mar 2025, $30B on U.S. goods) are referenced in trade-law timelines but not itemized with an oil-specific source; no item on any WCS impact of the 35% (Aug 2025) or 50% (Jul 2026) rounds, since energy stayed at 10% or excluded.
- Trump's 2019 Keystone XL permit action (EO authorizing TC Energy to build/maintain facilities) was not separately sourced; the 2017 approval and 2025 revival post are covered.
- Upcoming as of Sep 2026: no firm scheduled Trump-Carney summit date found; next hard dates are the USMCA annual-review cycle and the ongoing steel/aluminum/auto/forest-product irritants Carney listed April 2026.
For the WCSB book, Trump is best read through the differential, not the headline: the archive shows WCS holding up remarkably well through the tariff episodes, with the real moves coming from policy facts rather than posts. Watch the USMCA annual-review cycle and any new tariff rounds for the next repricing; the export ban stays ruled out, which is the one policy that would have blown the differential out structurally. Treat the feed as sentiment and the archive as the base rate.