The WCS comp barrel: public data on Venezuelan crude, freight, and how they price WCS.
Venezuelan heavy sour is the waterborne competitor that prices WCS. Public data only: EIA imports and exports, OPEC production, reported Merey prices and freight. Nothing here is licensed data.
US imports of Venezuelan crude
Vintage: EIA WPSR Table 8 via EIA API v2, series W_EPC0_IM0_NUS-NVE_MBBLD; weeks ending 2026-03-20 to 2026-09-11, pulled 2026-09-23. Latest week: 782 kb/d.
Weekly imports
Venezuelan production: secondary sources vs direct communication
Vintage: OPEC August 2026 MOMR Table 5-7/5-8; months 2026-05 to 2026-07. OPEC secondary-source estimates, kb/d.
Secondary sources
Vintage: OPEC August 2026 MOMR Table 5-7/5-8; months 2026-05 to 2026-07. PDVSA self-reported (direct communication), kb/d. Treat with skepticism; history wins over announcements.
Direct communication
Latest: 1117 secondary, 1200 direct (kb/d, 2026-07).
Merey pricing
Observation
Value
Basis
Source
2026-01
-5.00
$/bbl differential to ICE Brent; Vitol Merey offer to China
Bloomberg via OilPrice.com Jan 2026
2026-08
76.82
$/bbl outright Merey formula price; about $14 under Brent
Reuters Sep 22 2026
Points come on different bases (outright vs Brent differential); they are not one continuous series. A chart appears once a consistent differential series accumulates.
Jose to USGC freight
Vintage: Reported Aframax fixtures, Jose to USGC, $/bbl equivalent (lump sum / ~700 kb cargo). Freight up widens the FOB netback wedge and pressures PDVSA to lower its offer.
Freight, $/bbl
Observation
$/bbl
Basis
Source
2026-01
1.90
$/bbl equivalent; Aframax Jose to USGC lump sum $1.35M
Signal Maritime via Reuters Sep 22 2026
2026-09
5.00
$/bbl equivalent; Aframax Jose to USGC lump sum $3.50M
Signal Maritime via Reuters Sep 22 2026
US crude exports: the export-arb read
Vintage: EIA via API v2, series WCREXUS2; weeks ending 2026-03-20 to 2026-09-11. Export arb = Brent minus WTI Houston minus freight. Positive arb opens the window and exports respond with a lag; negative arb backs barrels into PADD 3 and pressures WTI, then WCS through the light-heavy spread.
Weekly exports
Where the barrels go
Destination splits are estimates: dark-fleet AIS gaps and ship-to-ship transfers mean no exact accounting exists. August 2026 estimates from tanker-tracking reporting (Reuters, September 2026):
Destination
Est. kb/d
United States (Chevron-licensed)
~553
India
~297
Europe
~260
How this prices WCS
Merey and WCS are alternative heavy-sour barrels for USGC cokers and Asian teapots. A refiner choosing between discounted Merey and WCS treats them as alternates, so Venezuelan crude prices WCS even when it never lands in the US.
Higher freight widens the FOB netback wedge and pressures PDVSA to lower its offer to keep barrels placed.
Lower Merey offers reprice the competing heavy-sour complex (Merey, WCS, Arab Heavy, Basrah Heavy): if Merey is offered lower into China or Europe, WCS must follow to clear.
ARV minus TMW is the Hardisty-to-Houston export-arb context for this read, not a modeled differential forecast.
Sources
Series
Publisher
Detail
Observation
Retrieved
US imports of Venezuelan crude
EIA
WPSR Table 8, API v2 series W_EPC0_IM0_NUS-NVE_MBBLD (eia.gov/petroleum)
Heavy Reading · the WCSB supply letter.
Public information only: AER ST3/ST39/ST53 and company disclosures via the WCSB S&D model. Nothing here is licensed data, so this page renders the same with or without ?public=1.