Forward 12-month maintenance calendar by asset, confirmed vs pattern-indicated, with kb/d impacts.
One-year forward maintenance calendar: 2026-10-01 through 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-22 from company guidance, transcripts, and the seasonal pattern study.
| Event | Project | Note |
|---|---|---|
| turnaround_horizon_sep_oct_2026 | cnq_horizon | 35-day turnaround began 2026-09-08, ~-29 kb/d annualized (CNRL Q2 2026 results); runs to ~2026-10-12, overlapping the window Oct 1-12. In offline_barrels.yaml. |
| turnaround_cold_lake_3q4q_2026 | imo_cold_lake | 3Q/4Q 2026 turnaround, 3 kbd annualized (Imperial 2026 guidance); Q4 portion falls in the window. In offline_barrels.yaml. |
| turnaround_syncrude_q3_2026 | syncrude | Coker 8-2 turnaround planned start 2026-08-20, ~50 days (Suncor Q2 2026 call; deferred from Q2 per Imperial Q2 2026 call), running to ~2026-10-09, overlapping the window Oct 1-9. In offline_barrels.yaml. Paired disposition (mine dial-back 45%, Base redirect offset) approved 2026-09-23: see disposition_coker82_2026 in offline_barrels.yaml. |
| Project | Timing | Event | Impact kb/d | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| su_base_plant | Oct 2026 to Dec 2026 (quarter precision) | Turnaround | -15.0 | Suncor Energy Inc., 2026 planned maintenance table (Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 investor presentations) (2026-04-01) |
| su_base_plant | Oct 2026 to Dec 2026 (quarter precision) | Turnaround | -5.0 | Suncor Energy Inc., 2026 planned maintenance table (Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 investor presentations) (2026-04-01) |
| Project | Timing | Event | Impact kb/d | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| imo_kearl | Oct 2026 to Sep 2027 | No turnaround in window (stated) | null (never estimated) | Imperial Oil Limited, 2026 Corporate guidance (via Oil Sands Magazine 2026-01-15) (2026-01-15) |
| cve_christina_lake | Oct 2026 to Dec 2026 (quarter precision) | No turnaround in window (stated) | null (never estimated) | Cenovus Energy Inc., Cenovus announces second-quarter 2026 results (2026-07-29) |
| cve_foster_creek | Oct 2026 to Dec 2026 (quarter precision) | No turnaround in window (stated) | null (never estimated) | Cenovus Energy Inc., Cenovus announces second-quarter 2026 results (2026-07-29) |
| cve_sunrise | Oct 2026 to Dec 2026 (quarter precision) | No turnaround in window (stated) | null (never estimated) | Cenovus Energy Inc., Cenovus announces second-quarter 2026 results (2026-07-29) |
| cnq_horizon | 2028 (year precision) | Scheduled (future window) | null (never estimated) | Canadian Natural Resources Limited, 2026 Budget press release (2025-12-16) |
| imo_kearl | 2029 (year precision) | Scheduled (future window) | null (never estimated) | Imperial Oil Limited, Imperial Oil (IMO) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (2026-07-31) |
| ath_leismer | 2030 (year precision) | Scheduled (future window) | null (never estimated) | Athabasca Oil Corporation, Athabasca Oil Reports Strong 2026 First Quarter Results and Increased Cash Flow Outlook (2026-05-06) |
| cve_christina_lake | 2031 (year precision) | Scheduled (future window) | null (never estimated) | Cenovus Energy Inc., Cenovus Energy Inc. Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (2026-07-29) (2026-07-29) |
| su_firebag | 2031 (year precision) | Scheduled (future window) | null (never estimated) | Suncor Energy Inc., Suncor Energy Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (2026-08-05) |
| Project | Timing | Event | Impact kb/d | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| cnq_primrose | Apr 2027 | Turnaround | null (never estimated) | None, ST53 seasonal dip analysis (repo-computed, AER ST53) (2026-09-22) |
| su_firebag | May 2027 | Turnaround | null (never estimated) | None, ST53 seasonal dip analysis (repo-computed, AER ST53) (2026-09-22) |
| ath_leismer | May 2027 | Turnaround | null (never estimated) | None, ST53 seasonal dip analysis (repo-computed, AER ST53) (2026-09-22) |
| meg_christina_lake | May 2027 | Turnaround | null (never estimated) | None, ST53 seasonal dip analysis (repo-computed, AER ST53) (2026-09-22) |
| su_mackay_river | Sep 2027 | Turnaround | null (never estimated) | None, ST53 seasonal dip analysis (repo-computed, AER ST53) (2026-09-22) |
Per-asset calendars live on each project profile.
| Publisher | Dataset | URL | Published | Vintage / coverage | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST3: Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statistics | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st3 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 (latest file vintage 2026-08-27) | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST53: In-situ project data (BITUMEN sheet) | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st53 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST39: Mine and upgrader facility data | URL not recorded in repo | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-05 | 2026-09-22 |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Pipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment (open data) | https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/throughput-capacity/ | Monthly, ~3-month lag | Jan 2018 to Jun 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Company disclosures | Quarterlies, budget releases, investor presentations, earnings calls | URLs per record in annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml | As published | Forward maintenance calendar window 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-22 |
| Heavy Reading model | WCSB S&D dashboard build (21 granular leaves, grade layer, maintenance math) | No public URL (repo build) | Per build | Forecast built 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast built 2026-09-23 | 2026-09-23 |
Every number on this page traces to a row above. Anything missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.
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