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World

Geopolitical supply coverage, separate from the WCSB S&D; model.

WCSB crude is effectively global sour now: it prices against Dubai, Mars, and Merey, and moves on Hormuz transits, Red Sea freight, Russian refinery outages, Chinese buying, SPR policy, and Washington. These watches track those drivers. Kept separate from the supply/demand model pages by design.

Coverage

Hormuz watch: Tanker movement through the world's most important oil chokepoint.
Iran watch: Iranian oil exports under sanctions and blockade: tanker-tracked estimates, floating storage, the shadow fleet, and China's buying.
Red Sea: Shipping disruptions and rerouting around the Red Sea.
Russian refineries: Refinery capacity offline in the Russia-Ukraine war.
China imports: China's crude-import appetite, the marginal call on sour barrels.
SPR & storage: US SPR and commercial storage: refills, capacity, policy.
Trump watch: Trump as a first-order driver of Canadian differentials: tariffs, meetings, SPR moves, and the archive of past episodes.
The global sour barrel: Dubai, Mars, Merey: the sour comparables that price WCS, and the arb drivers that move them.
OPEC & Middle East: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) supply decisions and Middle East crude flows: quotas, compliance, and spare capacity.
Condensate & diluent: Condensate supply and diluent demand for oil-sands blending: the other half of the Western Canadian Select (WCS) barrel.
Refinery margins: Refining margins and runs: what refineries earn cracking the barrel, and what that means for crude demand.
Venezuela watch: the WCS comp barrel. Public data on Venezuelan crude production, US imports, reported Merey prices, and freight, and how they price WCS.

Atlantic basin notes will land here as they are built.

Sources

Sources
Publisher	Dataset	URL	Published	Vintage / coverage	Retrieved
Alberta Energy Regulator	ST3: Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statistics	https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st3	Monthly	Actuals through 2026-07 (latest file vintage 2026-08-27)	2026-09-22
Alberta Energy Regulator	ST53: In-situ project data (BITUMEN sheet)	https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st53	Monthly	Actuals through 2026-07	2026-09-22
Alberta Energy Regulator	ST39: Mine and upgrader facility data	URL not recorded	Monthly	Actuals through 2026-05	2026-09-22
Canada Energy Regulator	Pipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment (open data)	https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/throughput-capacity/	Monthly, ~3-month lag	Jan 2018 to Jun 2026	2026-09-22
Company disclosures	Quarterlies, budget releases, investor presentations, earnings calls	URLs per record in the forward maintenance calendar	As published	Forward maintenance calendar window 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-22	2026-09-22
Heavy Reading model	WCSB S&D dashboard build (21 granular leaves, grade layer, maintenance math)	No public URL (model build)	Per build	Forecast built 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast built 2026-09-23	2026-09-23
U.S. Energy Information Administration	Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR): weekly preliminary crude imports by country (Table 8), weekly crude exports	https://www.eia.gov	Weekly	Sep 2025 to Sep 2026 weekly series	2026-09-23
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)	Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR): Venezuela crude production, secondary sources and direct communication	https://www.opec.org	Monthly	Venezuela production series via Aug 2026 MOMR Tables 5-7/5-8	2026-09-24
ICE	Delayed futures quotes	https://www.ice.com	Daily	Brent settles referenced in weekly digest pricing	Per edition
Statistics Canada	Canadian energy series referenced in weekly digest editions	https://www.statcan.gc.ca	As published	Series per digest edition	Per edition
Suncor Energy	Quarterly results, budget/guidance releases, investor presentations, earnings calls	URLs per record in the forward maintenance calendar	As published	Forward maintenance outlook; project profiles	2026-09-22
Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL)	Quarterly results, budget/guidance releases, investor presentations, earnings calls	URLs per record in the forward maintenance calendar	As published	Forward maintenance outlook; project profiles	2026-09-22
Imperial Oil	Quarterly results, budget/guidance releases, investor presentations, earnings calls	URLs per record in the forward maintenance calendar	As published	Forward maintenance outlook; project profiles	2026-09-22
Cenovus Energy	Quarterly results, budget/guidance releases, investor presentations, earnings calls	URLs per record in the forward maintenance calendar	As published	Forward maintenance outlook; project profiles	2026-09-22
Reuters	Wire reporting cited on watch pages: Venezuela Merey pricing, Signal Maritime freight rates	https://www.reuters.com	As published	Venezuela watch Sep 2026; geopolitical watch pages	2026-09-24
The Associated Press	Wire reporting cited on geopolitical watch pages	https://apnews.com	As published	Per watch page	Per watch page
OilPrice.com	Vitol Merey offer to China (Bloomberg-sourced), Jan 2026	https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Is-Importing-Its-Last-Ultra-Cheap-Sanctioned-Venezuelan-Oil.html	As published	Venezuela watch, Jan 2026	2026-09-23
Signal Maritime	Aframax freight rates, Jose terminal to USGC, reported via Reuters	URL not recorded	As published	Venezuela watch, Jan/Sep 2026	2026-09-24
U.S. Department of Energy	Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) data and policy statements	https://www.energy.gov	As published	SPR & storage watch	Per watch page
Commercial storage	Licensed market-data inputs embedded in model builds; vendor identities withheld per licence terms	Not disclosed	Per licence	As embedded in builds	Per build

Every number on this page traces to a row above. Anything missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.