Syncrude Canada Ltd.
Turnaround in model: Oct 2026 (+10.1 kb/d, Syncrude Coker 8-2 mine dial-back)Integrated (mine + upgrader)SU
| Operator | Syncrude Canada Ltd. |
| Type | Integrated (mine + upgrader) |
| Ticker | SU |
| ST53 scheme | not in ST53 |
| Description | Syncrude is an integrated oil sands mining and upgrading joint venture in the Athabasca region (Mildred Lake and Aurora mines, upgrader). Suncor assumed operatorship in October 2021. Mined bitumen is upgraded on site to synthetic crude oil (SCO). Source: International Mining, Suncor officially takes over operatorship of Syncrude Joint Venture, 2021-10-08 |
| Status | Operating. |
| Nameplate capacity | Gross SCO capacity of about 350,000 bbl/d. Source: JX Nippon Oil and Gas Exploration, Summary of Syncrude Oil Sand Project, 2026-09-23 Source: Oil and Gas Journal, Suncor buys Mocal Energy's Syncrude stake, 2018-02-12 Suncor reports its share of upgrader capacity as 206,000 bbl/d, net to its 58.74% working interest (206,000 / 0.5874 implies about 350,700 bbl/d gross; the company does not state the gross figure, so record both bases without treating them as a conflict). Source: Suncor Energy, Q4 2025 investor presentation Syncrude gross production averaged 323,000 bbl/d in 2023 (190,000 bbl/d net to Suncor). Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Energy achieves 2023 upstream production corporate guidance, 2024-01-03 |
| Start-up / phases | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Ownership / JV split | The joint venture partners are Suncor Energy Inc. (58.74%), Imperial Oil Resources Limited (25.0%), Sinopec Oil Sands Partnership (9.03%), and CNOOC Oil Sands Canada (7.23%). Suncor's interest grew from 53.74% to 58.74% when it closed the purchase of Mocal Energy's 5% interest on February 26, 2018, effective January 1, 2018. Suncor is the operator (since October 2021). Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Energy closes purchase of additional interest in Syncrude, via GlobeNewswire/BOE Report, 2018-02-26 Source: International Mining, Suncor officially takes over operatorship of Syncrude Joint Venture, 2021-10-08 |
| Product and disposition | SCO from the upgrader; mined bitumen to the upgrader (froth treatment NFT: upgrader-locked, cannot meet pipeline dilbit spec) Source: annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md |
| Process / technology | Open-pit mining with naphtha froth treatment (NFT); mined bitumen is upgrader-locked and is upgraded on site to SCO. Note: NFT classification is secondary-sourced research. Source: project technology research compilation, 2026-09-23 |
| Froth treatment | NFT (naphthenic froth treatment): upgrader-locked Source: annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md |
| Interconnects | Suncor-Syncrude bi-directional interconnects (in service ~2020/21): bitumen can flow either way Source: annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md |
| Growth / expansions | No sanctioned expansion disclosed in reviewed sources. |
| Company-disclosed maintenance | Suncor's 2026 corporate guidance disclosed maintenance at Syncrude with a quarterly production and cost effect. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Energy announces 2026 corporate guidance, 2025-12-11 A planned turnaround at Syncrude in Q2 2026 was disclosed in Imperial Oil's 2026 guidance; Imperial's 2026 Syncrude production guidance is 78,000 to 82,000 bbl/d (Imperial share). Source: Imperial Oil, Imperial provides 2026 corporate guidance outlook, via Business Wire, 2025-12-15 The Q1 2026 Syncrude coker outage demonstrated the interconnect playbook: 16,400 bbl/d of Syncrude bitumen and 66,900 bbl/d of Fort Hills bitumen were transferred to Suncor Base, with the Base upgrader running at 108% utilization. Source: Suncor Energy Q1 2026 Form 6-K, via StockTitan, 2026-05 |
| Operating costs | 2026 cost guidance of $34 to $37/bbl, net to Suncor's 58.74% share. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Energy announces 2026 corporate guidance, 2025-12-11 Imperial Oil reported Q2 2026 unit cash cost of C$57.81/bbl for its Syncrude share. Source: Investing News, Imperial announces second quarter 2026 financial and operating results, 2026-07-31 |
Blank "not tracked" cells are facts not present in the public data used here. They are labeled, never estimated. Filing-sourced facts carry their document name and date; where sources disclose multiple bases for one figure, all are shown.
| Series | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Syncrude Mildred Lake | 118.2 | 195.4 | 158.7 | 153.1 | n/a | n/a |
| Syncrude Aurora | 183.8 | 177.9 | 188.0 | 211.3 | n/a | n/a |
| Syncrude Mildred Lake | 245.3 | 274.9 | 345.0 | 322.8 | n/a | n/a |
| Series | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 | Dec 2026 | Jan 2027 | Feb 2027 | Mar 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Syncrude Mildred Lake | 161.3 | 196.6 | 203.1 | 172.4 | 170.7 | 166.3 |
| Syncrude Aurora | 197.9 | 230.2 | 238.1 | 203.5 | 193.7 | 225.1 |
| Syncrude Mildred Lake | 296.2 | 369.2 | 374.7 | 328.9 | 332.0 | 331.9 |
Full 26-month table with drill-down lives in the trading dashboard. Blank cells are months AER has not published yet, not zeros.
How to read Syncrude Mildred Lake: Syncrude Canada Ltd. facility. Actuals through 2026-05; Jun-Jul 2026 are blank until AER publishes them. The forecast repeats this plant's own seasonality; the pro-rata scaling only changes the level so the drill-down ties to the approved aggregate. Maintenance modeled down at this leaf: Syncrude Coker 8-2 mine dial-back (approved 2026-09-23). Aug 2026 -13.4, Sep 2026 -34.7, Oct 2026 -10.1 kb/d: 45% of the SCO rate (SYNCRUDE_MINE_DIALBACK_SHARE = 0.45, midpoint of the 30-60% empirical range in annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md). The paired upgrader leaf carries the SCO deduction; the balance of the coker feed shortfall is assumed redirected via the Suncor-Syncrude interconnect (see the Suncor Base upgrader leaf). Carried at the Mildred Lake plant leaf as the complex-level mined impact; Aurora's leaf is unchanged.
How to read Syncrude Aurora: Syncrude Canada Ltd. facility. Actuals through 2026-05; Jun-Jul 2026 are blank until AER publishes them. The forecast repeats this plant's own seasonality; the pro-rata scaling only changes the level so the drill-down ties to the approved aggregate.
How to read Syncrude Mildred Lake: Syncrude Canada Ltd. facility. Actuals through 2026-05; Jun-Jul 2026 are blank until AER publishes them. The forecast repeats this plant's own seasonality; the pro-rata scaling only changes the level so the drill-down ties to the approved aggregate. Maintenance modeled down at this leaf: Syncrude Coker 8-2 turnaround (planned start Aug 20 2026, about 50 days). Aug 2026 -29.8 kb/d (Aug 20-31, 77 x 12/31), Sep 2026 -77.0 kb/d (full month), Oct 2026 -22.4 kb/d (Oct 1-9 tail, 77 x 9/31). Source: Suncor Q2 2026 MD&A (2026-08-04), Q1 2026 investor presentation. The paired mined-bitumen leaf dials back at 45% of the SCO rate and Suncor Base's upgrader leaf carries the interconnect redirect as a positive SCO offset (see those leaves).
| Timing | Event | Impact kb/d | Standing | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| turnaround_syncrude_q3_2026 | Coker 8-2 turnaround planned start 2026-08-20, ~50 days (Suncor Q2 2026 call; deferred from Q2 per Imperial Q2 2026 call), running to ~2026-10-09, overlapping the window Oct 1-9. In offline_barrels.yaml. Paired disposition (mine dial-back 45%, Base redirect offset) approved 2026-09-23: see disposition_coker82_2026 in offline_barrels.yaml. | in offline_barrels.yaml | In model math | See note |
Pattern-indicated entries are indicators only: they carry no volume and never enter model math. Math requires public-confirmed guidance.
Named assumptions: Syncrude Canada Ltd. facility. Actuals through 2026-05; Jun-Jul 2026 are blank until AER publishes them. The forecast repeats this plant's own seasonality; the pro-rata scaling only changes the level so the drill-down ties to the approved aggregate. Maintenance modeled down at this leaf: Syncrude Coker 8-2 mine dial-back (approved 2026-09-23). Aug 2026 -13.4, Sep 2026 -34.7, Oct 2026 -10.1 kb/d: 45% of the SCO rate (SYNCRUDE_MINE_DIALBACK_SHARE = 0.45, midpoint of the 30-60% empirical range in annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md). The paired upgrader leaf carries the SCO deduction; the balance of the coker feed shortfall is assumed redirected via the Suncor-Syncrude interconnect (see the Suncor Base upgrader leaf). Carried at the Mildred Lake plant leaf as the complex-level mined impact; Aurora's leaf is unchanged.
Named assumptions: Syncrude Canada Ltd. facility. Actuals through 2026-05; Jun-Jul 2026 are blank until AER publishes them. The forecast repeats this plant's own seasonality; the pro-rata scaling only changes the level so the drill-down ties to the approved aggregate.
Named assumptions: Syncrude Canada Ltd. facility. Actuals through 2026-05; Jun-Jul 2026 are blank until AER publishes them. The forecast repeats this plant's own seasonality; the pro-rata scaling only changes the level so the drill-down ties to the approved aggregate. Maintenance modeled down at this leaf: Syncrude Coker 8-2 turnaround (planned start Aug 20 2026, about 50 days). Aug 2026 -29.8 kb/d (Aug 20-31, 77 x 12/31), Sep 2026 -77.0 kb/d (full month), Oct 2026 -22.4 kb/d (Oct 1-9 tail, 77 x 9/31). Source: Suncor Q2 2026 MD&A (2026-08-04), Q1 2026 investor presentation. The paired mined-bitumen leaf dials back at 45% of the SCO rate and Suncor Base's upgrader leaf carries the interconnect redirect as a positive SCO offset (see those leaves).
Confirmation status: model forecast; maintenance impacts enter the math only from public-confirmed guidance.
Syncrude SCO averages 327.0 kb/d over the forecast. At interconnected Suncor/Syncrude sites the model redirects part of the mine rate via the bi-directional interconnect during upgrader outages (Q1 2026 precedent), and flexible SAGD/PFT barrels tilt toward dilbit. Modeled maintenance peaks at Oct 2026 (+22.4 kb/d).
Basis: model-derived from the dashboard series above; no external view is added.
Syncrude Mildred Lake
Source: AER ST39, oil-sands plant data (mined bitumen and SCO by facility)
Vintage: AER ST39 actuals through 2026-05, pulled 2026-09-22; forecast model _seasonal_baseline, built 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST39 plant reported. forecast: seasonal baseline, scaled pro-rata to tie to the ST3 mined bitumen line. Confirmed maintenance is deducted at this leaf after the baseline (see Why).
Syncrude Aurora
Source: AER ST39, oil-sands plant data (mined bitumen and SCO by facility)
Vintage: AER ST39 actuals through 2026-05, pulled 2026-09-22; forecast model _seasonal_baseline, built 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST39 plant reported. forecast: seasonal baseline, scaled pro-rata to tie to the ST3 mined bitumen line.
Syncrude Mildred Lake
Source: AER ST39, oil-sands plant data (mined bitumen and SCO by facility)
Vintage: AER ST39 actuals through 2026-05, pulled 2026-09-22; forecast model _seasonal_baseline, built 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST39 plant reported. forecast: seasonal baseline, scaled pro-rata to tie to the ST3 upgraded production (SCO) line. Confirmed maintenance is deducted at this leaf after the baseline (see Why).
| Publisher | Dataset | URL | Published | Vintage / coverage | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST3: Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statistics | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st3 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 (latest file vintage 2026-08-27) | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST53: In-situ project data (BITUMEN sheet) | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st53 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST39: Mine and upgrader facility data | URL not recorded in repo | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-05 | 2026-09-22 |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Pipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment (open data) | https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/throughput-capacity/ | Monthly, ~3-month lag | Jan 2018 to Jun 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Company disclosures | Quarterlies, budget releases, investor presentations, earnings calls | URLs per record in annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml | As published | Forward maintenance calendar window 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-22 |
| Heavy Reading model | WCSB S&D dashboard build (21 granular leaves, grade layer, maintenance math) | No public URL (repo build) | Per build | Forecast built 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast built 2026-09-23 | 2026-09-23 |
Every number on this page traces to a row above. Anything missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.
?public=1.