Week of September 23, 2026 · published 2026-09-23
Largest absolute month-to-month changes across the 12-month forward balance (kb/d). Drill into any line on the Projected ST3 dashboard.
| Month | Line | Change kb/d | From kb/d | To kb/d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01 | Total supply | -363.1 | 4,511.1 | 4,148.0 |
| 2027-01 | Removals (exports) | -343.1 | 4,700.3 | 4,357.2 |
| 2027-06 | Total supply | +279.5 | 3,817.3 | 4,096.8 |
| 2027-06 | Removals (exports) | +255.9 | 4,116.5 | 4,372.4 |
| 2027-04 | Total supply | -230.2 | 4,265.4 | 4,035.2 |
| 2027-07 | Total supply | +226.0 | 4,096.8 | 4,322.8 |
Change = this month minus prior month. Positive maintenance change means more barrels offline.
Source: Heavy Reading sd_balance.json, 12-month forward balance, built 2026-09-22
The six regime flags. First weekly edition: baseline established 2026-09-22, so the change column records the baseline rather than a move.
| Flag | Signal | Read | Change vs last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Enbridge Mainline apportionment | WATCH | Enbridge curtailing 12.4% of nominations. Moderate stress, not pipe-full. | baseline set 2026-09-22; first weekly edition |
| 2. Alberta commercial storage utilization | NEUTRAL | PROVISIONAL DATA. Utilization 43.0% (26.07M bbl of 60.68M bbl provisional capacity). Comfortable buffer. | baseline set 2026-09-22; first weekly edition |
| 3. Oil sands forward maintenance | NEUTRAL | Oct 2026 carries the only material confirmed offline barrels: Horizon residual 119 kb/d (Oct 1-12), Syncrude Coker 8-2 to ~Oct 9, Cold Lake Q4 portion | baseline set 2026-09-22; first weekly edition |
| 4. PADD 2 refinery runs vs seasonal norm | NEUTRAL | PADD 2 runs 4,343 kb/d (4-wk avg), +307 kb/d vs seasonal norm. Demand normal. | baseline set 2026-09-22; first weekly edition |
| 5. Crude-by-rail volumes and rail arb | NEUTRAL | Rail loadings 87,977 bbl/d (May 2026), far below the December 2018 peak of 364,893 bbl/d. Relief valve idle; pipe egress covering the barrel. | baseline set 2026-09-22; first weekly edition |
| 6. Basis curve structure (M1 vs M2, WTI + basis legs) | BEARISH-BASIS | Basis widened -1.16 $/bbl into 2026-10 (preliminary): -15.32 to -16.48. Prompt barrels clearing weaker. | baseline set 2026-09-22; first weekly edition |
Source: Heavy Reading flags.json, reads as of 2026-09-22
Public-confirmed offline barrels only. Seasonal-pattern items are labeled ASSUMED and never enter the math.
2026-10: Horizon (CNRL) -119 kb/d (timing as stated); Syncrude Coker 8-2 (turnaround, deferred from Q2) -49 kb/d (timing as stated); Suncor Base Plant bitumen (mine side) -15 kb/d (timing as stated); Suncor Base Plant SCO/diesel -5 kb/d (timing as stated)
2026-11: Suncor Base Plant bitumen (mine side) -15 kb/d (timing as stated); Suncor Base Plant SCO/diesel -5 kb/d (timing as stated)
2026-12: Suncor Base Plant bitumen (mine side) -15 kb/d (timing as stated); Suncor Base Plant SCO/diesel -5 kb/d (timing as stated)
2027 watch (ASSUMED, pattern-indicated): MacKay River September (strongest seasonal signal, 6 of 7 years); Firebag, MEG Christina Lake and Leismer May; Primrose April. No 2027 company turnarounds are published yet.
November 2026 injection trading opens October 1 (eight days). October injections are closed and post-nominations.
EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report: US crude stocks excluding SPR 423,429 MBBL for the week of September 11, 2026 (EIA v2 API, via the desk key).
Trans Mountain ran 96.2% utilization in June 2026 with 0% apportionment; Keystone apportionment 5.0%. CER data runs on a ~3-month lag; July and August files are the next refresh.
Q3 2026 earnings begin late October: the next update to company turnaround guidance and the quarterly operator digest.
August ST3 actuals are the next data point that moves the model: they close the two-month anchor gap between July actuals and the October forecast start.
Drill into the numbers: the Projected ST3 dashboard (site/st3-dashboard.html) carries every ST3 line, 12 months of actuals plus 12 months of forecast, with project-level expanders and CSV export.
Physical supply/demand balance, not a differential forecast. Supply forecast at granular project leaves (AER ST53 commercial schemes for SAGD/CSS, ST3 lines for mined and conventional), then aggregated: trailing-12-month mean times a seasonal factor from the last three complete years. Mapped ST53 projects cover 76.7% of ST3 in-situ; the balance is grossed up with an explicit coverage factor.
Maintenance offline counts only public-confirmed company guidance and transcript items. Seasonal-pattern indicators are shown as assumed and never enter the math. Unknown values stay null.
Implied storage change = supply total minus maintenance offline plus diluent imports minus refinery demand minus removals (all kb/d). It is the simple physical balance, not the ST3 inventory print.
Flag signals are regime reads, not forecasts. No storage/differential relationship enters any model until point-in-time tests beat naive carry.
| Publisher | Dataset | URL | Published | Vintage / coverage | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST3 - Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statistics | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st3 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 (latest file vintage 2026-08-27) | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST53 - In-situ project data | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st53 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 | 2026-09-22 |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Pipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment (open data) | https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/throughput-capacity/ | Monthly, ~3-month lag | Jan 2018-Jun 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| U.S. Energy Information Administration | Weekly Petroleum Status Report (v2 API) | https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/ | Weekly | Week of 2026-09-11 | 2026-09-23 |
| Heavy Reading model | sd_balance.json (12-month forward balance, 21 granular leaves) | no URL on record | Model build | Oct 2026-Sep 2027, built 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-22 |
| Heavy Reading model | Forward maintenance calendar (annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml) | no URL on record | Compiled from company guidance and transcripts | 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-22 |
| Heavy Reading model | flags.json, cycle.json, injection_brief.json, guidance_digest.json | no URL on record | Model outputs | 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-22 |
Every number in this report traces to a row above. Any chart or table missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.
Physical supply/demand balance. Not a differential forecast and not validated as one. Licensed inputs stay in the private workspace and are never committed. Built 2026-09-23.