Suncor Energy Inc.
Pattern-indicated maintenance: Sep 2027 (indicator only, no volume in model math)SAGDSU
| Operator | Suncor Energy Inc. |
| Type | SAGD |
| Ticker | SU |
| ST53 scheme | MacKay River |
| Description | MacKay River is a steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) in-situ oil sands project operated by Suncor. It is separate from the PetroChina MacKay River project, which is tracked separately under petrochina_mackay; the two share the same ST53 scheme name but are different facilities with different operators. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Celebrates One Billion Barrels of In Situ Production, via Investing News, 2022-11-24 |
| Status | Operating. |
| Nameplate capacity | The facility produces about 38,000 barrels of bitumen per day during normal operations. Note: this is a stated operating rate, not a labeled nameplate. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Celebrates One Billion Barrels of In Situ Production, via Investing News, 2022-11-24 2025 full-year production was 33,000 bbl/d of bitumen. Source: Suncor Energy, Q4 2025 investor presentation |
| Start-up / phases | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Ownership / JV split | Suncor Energy Inc. owns 100% and operates MacKay River. Source: Suncor Energy, Q4 2025 investor presentation |
| Product and disposition | Bitumen: flexible disposition, dilbit to market or upgrader feed (economically optimized) Source: Dashboard grade-layer panel (leaf mapping lineage); disposition defaults from annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md |
| Process / technology | SAGD. Bitumen is processed before being piped to Suncor's upgrading facilities or direct to market. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Celebrates One Billion Barrels of In Situ Production, via Investing News, 2022-11-24 |
| Froth treatment | not applicable (in-situ / upgrading) |
| Interconnects | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Growth / expansions | No sanctioned expansion disclosed in reviewed sources. |
| Company-disclosed maintenance | Suncor's 2026 corporate guidance disclosed maintenance at MacKay River with a quarterly production and cost effect. Specific duration not disclosed. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Energy announces 2026 corporate guidance, 2025-12-11 not disclosed in reviewed sources |
| Operating costs | Per-barrel operating cost for MacKay River specifically: not disclosed. Suncor's 2026 Oil Sands Operations cost guidance (which includes Base Plant, Firebag, and MacKay River) is $26 to $29/bbl. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Energy announces 2026 corporate guidance, 2025-12-11 |
Blank "not tracked" cells are facts not present in the public data used here. They are labeled, never estimated. Filing-sourced facts carry their document name and date; where sources disclose multiple bases for one figure, all are shown.
| Series | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacKay River (Suncor) | 44.7 | 41.6 | 44.3 | 46.3 | 43.9 | 41.7 |
| Series | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 | Dec 2026 | Jan 2027 | Feb 2027 | Mar 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacKay River (Suncor) | 39.4 | 45.0 | 44.1 | 44.3 | 45.2 | 44.6 |
Full 26-month table with drill-down lives in the trading dashboard. Blank cells are months AER has not published yet, not zeros.
How to read MacKay River (Suncor): Sep 2027 dip to 15.0 lines up with its pattern-indicated turnaround month (Sep flagged 6 of 7 years). Strongest seasonal signal in the roster; indicator only, not in the model math.
No maintenance events in the current model math for this project.
| Timing | Event | Impact kb/d | Standing | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2027 | Turnaround | not stated (null, never estimated) | Pattern indicated (indicator only) | None, ST53 seasonal dip analysis (repo-computed, AER ST53) (2026-09-22) |
Pattern-indicated entries are indicators only: they carry no volume and never enter model math. Math requires public-confirmed guidance.
Named assumptions: Sep 2027 dip to 15.0 lines up with its pattern-indicated turnaround month (Sep flagged 6 of 7 years). Strongest seasonal signal in the roster; indicator only, not in the model math.
Confirmation status: model forecast; maintenance impacts enter the math only from public-confirmed guidance.
In-situ bitumen has flexible disposition (dilbit to market or upgrader feed). In the model, MacKay River output is unchanged by upgrader outages and any upgrader-bound share is assumed diverted to dilbit, so its 41.6 kb/d 12-month forecast average is a steady contributor to marketable dilbit across the tradable window.
Basis: model-derived from the dashboard series above; no external view is added.
MacKay River (Suncor)
Source: AER ST53, commercial scheme mapping (repo annotations/projects.yaml)
Vintage: AER ST53 actuals through 2026-07, pulled 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST53 scheme observed, grossed up by 1.27 to ST3 in-situ level (mapped projects cover 79.0%). forecast: _seasonal_baseline (trailing-12m mean x seasonal factor from last 3 complete years).
| Publisher | Dataset | URL | Published | Vintage / coverage | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST3: Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statistics | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st3 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 (latest file vintage 2026-08-27) | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST53: In-situ project data (BITUMEN sheet) | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st53 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST39: Mine and upgrader facility data | URL not recorded in repo | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-05 | 2026-09-22 |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Pipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment (open data) | https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/throughput-capacity/ | Monthly, ~3-month lag | Jan 2018 to Jun 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Company disclosures | Quarterlies, budget releases, investor presentations, earnings calls | URLs per record in annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml | As published | Forward maintenance calendar window 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-22 |
| Heavy Reading model | WCSB S&D dashboard build (21 granular leaves, grade layer, maintenance math) | No public URL (repo build) | Per build | Forecast built 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast built 2026-09-23 | 2026-09-23 |
Every number on this page traces to a row above. Anything missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.
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