Suncor Energy Inc.
Pattern-indicated maintenance: May 2027 (indicator only, no volume in model math)SAGDSU
| Operator | Suncor Energy Inc. |
| Type | SAGD |
| Ticker | SU |
| ST53 scheme | Firebag |
| Description | Firebag is a steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) in-situ oil sands project in the Athabasca region. Bitumen is processed before being piped to Suncor's upgrading facilities or direct to market. It is part of Suncor's Oil Sands Operations segment. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Celebrates One Billion Barrels of In Situ Production, via Investing News, 2022-11-24 |
| Status | Operating. |
| Nameplate capacity | Nameplate capacity of 215,000 bbl/d of bitumen, disclosed after completion of incremental emulsion-handling and steam-infrastructure integration work. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor reports fourth quarter 2020 results, 2021-02-09 Firebag achieved record annual production of 217,000 bbl/d in 2023, above the stated nameplate. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Energy achieves 2023 upstream production corporate guidance, 2024-01-03 2025 full-year production was 248,000 bbl/d of bitumen. Source: Suncor Energy, Q4 2025 investor presentation |
| Start-up / phases | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Ownership / JV split | Suncor Energy Inc. owns 100% and operates Firebag. Source: Suncor Energy, Q4 2025 investor presentation |
| Product and disposition | Bitumen: flexible disposition, dilbit to market or upgrader feed (economically optimized) Source: Dashboard grade-layer panel (leaf mapping lineage); disposition defaults from annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md |
| Process / technology | SAGD. Bitumen is processed before being piped to Suncor's upgrading facilities or direct to market. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Celebrates One Billion Barrels of In Situ Production, via Investing News, 2022-11-24 |
| Froth treatment | not applicable (in-situ / upgrading) |
| Interconnects | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Growth / expansions | A cogeneration project at Firebag was under construction to replace older energy infrastructure (disclosed as part of Suncor's optimization and free-funds-flow program). Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor reports fourth quarter 2020 results, 2021-02-09 No new sanctioned capacity expansion disclosed in reviewed sources. |
| Company-disclosed maintenance | Suncor's 2026 corporate guidance disclosed a major Firebag turnaround with a quarterly production and cost effect. Specific duration was not disclosed in the release summary. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Energy announces 2026 corporate guidance, 2025-12-11 not disclosed in reviewed sources |
| Operating costs | Per-barrel operating cost for Firebag specifically: not disclosed. Suncor's 2026 Oil Sands Operations cost guidance (which includes Base Plant, Firebag, and MacKay River) is $26 to $29/bbl. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Energy announces 2026 corporate guidance, 2025-12-11 |
Blank "not tracked" cells are facts not present in the public data used here. They are labeled, never estimated. Filing-sourced facts carry their document name and date; where sources disclose multiple bases for one figure, all are shown.
| Series | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firebag (Suncor) | 311.8 | 304.3 | 273.9 | 132.4 | 305.3 | 305.7 |
| Series | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 | Dec 2026 | Jan 2027 | Feb 2027 | Mar 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firebag (Suncor) | 296.1 | 297.9 | 305.1 | 297.4 | 293.5 | 297.2 |
Full 26-month table with drill-down lives in the trading dashboard. Blank cells are months AER has not published yet, not zeros.
How to read Firebag (Suncor): May dip is seasonal (May flagged 5 of 16 years, incl. the 2026 major turnaround). Next major turnaround is on the stated 5-year cycle, around 2031.
No maintenance events in the current model math for this project.
| Timing | Event | Impact kb/d | Standing | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2027 | Turnaround | not stated (null, never estimated) | Pattern indicated (indicator only) | None, ST53 seasonal dip analysis (repo-computed, AER ST53) (2026-09-22) |
| 2031 (year precision) | Scheduled (future window) | not stated (null, never estimated) | Guidance sourced | Suncor Energy Inc., Suncor Energy Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (2026-08-05) |
Pattern-indicated entries are indicators only: they carry no volume and never enter model math. Math requires public-confirmed guidance.
Named assumptions: May dip is seasonal (May flagged 5 of 16 years, incl. the 2026 major turnaround). Next major turnaround is on the stated 5-year cycle, around 2031.
Confirmation status: model forecast; maintenance impacts enter the math only from public-confirmed guidance.
In-situ bitumen has flexible disposition (dilbit to market or upgrader feed). In the model, Firebag output is unchanged by upgrader outages and any upgrader-bound share is assumed diverted to dilbit, so its 293.4 kb/d 12-month forecast average is a steady contributor to marketable dilbit across the tradable window.
Basis: model-derived from the dashboard series above; no external view is added.
Firebag (Suncor)
Source: AER ST53, commercial scheme mapping (repo annotations/projects.yaml)
Vintage: AER ST53 actuals through 2026-07, pulled 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST53 scheme observed, grossed up by 1.27 to ST3 in-situ level (mapped projects cover 79.0%). forecast: _seasonal_baseline (trailing-12m mean x seasonal factor from last 3 complete years).
| Publisher | Dataset | URL | Published | Vintage / coverage | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST3: Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statistics | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st3 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 (latest file vintage 2026-08-27) | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST53: In-situ project data (BITUMEN sheet) | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st53 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST39: Mine and upgrader facility data | URL not recorded in repo | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-05 | 2026-09-22 |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Pipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment (open data) | https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/throughput-capacity/ | Monthly, ~3-month lag | Jan 2018 to Jun 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Company disclosures | Quarterlies, budget releases, investor presentations, earnings calls | URLs per record in annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml | As published | Forward maintenance calendar window 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-22 |
| Heavy Reading model | WCSB S&D dashboard build (21 granular leaves, grade layer, maintenance math) | No public URL (repo build) | Per build | Forecast built 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast built 2026-09-23 | 2026-09-23 |
Every number on this page traces to a row above. Anything missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.
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