Suncor Energy Inc.
Turnaround in model: Nov 2026 (+15.0 kb/d, Suncor Base Plant Q4 bitumen maintenance)Integrated (mine + upgrader)SU
| Operator | Suncor Energy Inc. |
| Type | Integrated (mine + upgrader) |
| Ticker | SU |
| ST53 scheme | not in ST53 |
| Description | Base Plant (Oil Sands Base) is Suncor's integrated mining and upgrading complex north of Fort McMurray. Mined bitumen is upgraded on site to synthetic crude oil (SCO). It is part of Suncor's Oil Sands Operations segment and connects to the Syncrude and Fort Hills assets via bi-directional interconnecting pipelines brought into service in Q4 2020. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor reports fourth quarter 2020 results, 2021-02-09 Source: Suncor Energy, Q4 2025 investor presentation |
| Status | Operating. |
| Nameplate capacity | Upgrader capacity of 350,000 bbl/d of SCO. Source: Suncor Energy, Q4 2025 investor presentation Base Mine production was 262,000 bbl/d of bitumen in 2025. Source: Suncor Energy, Q4 2025 investor presentation Convention (confirmed 2026-09-23): mine-bitumen capacity and upgrader SCO capacity are kept as separate lines in the model and on the project page, never blended into a single capacity figure. |
| Start-up / phases | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Ownership / JV split | Suncor Energy Inc. owns 100% and operates Base Plant. Source: Suncor Energy, Q4 2025 investor presentation |
| Product and disposition | SCO from the upgrader; mined bitumen to the upgrader (froth treatment NFT: upgrader-locked, cannot meet pipeline dilbit spec) Source: annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md |
| Process / technology | Open-pit mining with naphtha froth treatment (NFT); mined bitumen is upgrader-locked and is upgraded on site to SCO. Note: NFT classification is secondary-sourced research. Source: project technology research compilation, 2026-09-23 |
| Froth treatment | NFT (naphthenic froth treatment): upgrader-locked Source: annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md |
| Interconnects | Suncor-Syncrude bi-directional interconnects (in service ~2020/21): bitumen can flow either way Source: annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md |
| Growth / expansions | No sanctioned capacity expansion disclosed in reviewed sources. Suncor disclosed a cogeneration project at Oil Sands Base to replace existing coke-fired boilers (part of its environmental and free-funds-flow program). Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor reports fourth quarter 2020 results, 2021-02-09 |
| Company-disclosed maintenance | Suncor's 2026 corporate guidance disclosed maintenance at Base Plant with a quarterly production and cost effect. Specific duration not disclosed. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Energy announces 2026 corporate guidance, 2025-12-11 The Upgrader 2 major five-year turnaround was completed in 2023; the Base Plant upgrader achieved 90% full-year utilization in 2023 including that turnaround. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Energy achieves 2023 upstream production corporate guidance, 2024-01-03 |
| Operating costs | Per-barrel operating cost for Base Plant specifically: not disclosed. Suncor's 2026 Oil Sands Operations cost guidance (Base Plant, Firebag, MacKay River) is $26 to $29/bbl. Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor Energy announces 2026 corporate guidance, 2025-12-11 |
Blank "not tracked" cells are facts not present in the public data used here. They are labeled, never estimated. Filing-sourced facts carry their document name and date; where sources disclose multiple bases for one figure, all are shown.
| Series | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suncor OSG | 231.7 | 264.9 | 244.9 | 232.8 | n/a | n/a |
| Suncor OSG | 372.7 | 381.8 | 340.3 | 244.0 | n/a | n/a |
| Series | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 | Dec 2026 | Jan 2027 | Feb 2027 | Mar 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suncor OSG | 205.4 | 294.4 | 315.1 | 267.2 | 263.0 | 287.4 |
| Suncor OSG | 288.3 | 387.0 | 387.6 | 367.5 | 365.6 | 385.7 |
Full 26-month table with drill-down lives in the trading dashboard. Blank cells are months AER has not published yet, not zeros.
How to read Suncor OSG: Suncor Energy Inc. facility. Actuals through 2026-05; Jun-Jul 2026 are blank until AER publishes them. The forecast repeats this plant's own seasonality; the pro-rata scaling only changes the level so the drill-down ties to the approved aggregate. Maintenance modeled down at this leaf: Suncor Base Plant Q4 bitumen maintenance, Nov 2026 -15 kb/d (quarterly event-rate; timing within Q4 unpublished, placed mid-quarter). Source: Suncor 2026 planned maintenance table (Q1 2026 investor presentation, 2026-04-01).
How to read Suncor OSG: Suncor Energy Inc. facility. Actuals through 2026-05; Jun-Jul 2026 are blank until AER publishes them. The forecast repeats this plant's own seasonality; the pro-rata scaling only changes the level so the drill-down ties to the approved aggregate. Maintenance modeled down at this leaf: Suncor Base Plant Q4 SCO and diesel maintenance, Nov 2026 -5 kb/d. Source: Suncor 2026 planned maintenance table (Q1 2026 investor presentation, 2026-04-01). Coker 8-2 redirect (approved 2026-09-23): this upgrader leaf carries a positive SCO offset for Syncrude bitumen redirected via the Suncor-Syncrude interconnect. Redirected bitumen = SCO_drop/0.843 (Syncrude observed yield) minus the mined dial-back, converted at 0.87 SCO yield. 2026-08: +7.2 kb/d (capped at +7.2: baseline 372.8 + uncapped 19.1 = 391.9 exceeded the 380.0 kb/d demonstrated headroom (Q1 2026 precedent, ~380 at 108% of ~350 nameplate); the uncaptured 11.9 kb/d SCO (13.7 kb/d bitumen) is not modeled); 2026-09: +49.3 kb/d; 2026-10: +14.3 kb/d. Source: interconnect precedent Q1 2026 (16.4 kb/d Syncrude bitumen to Base, Base at 108% utilization).
| Timing | Event | Impact kb/d | Standing | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 to Dec 2026 (quarter precision) | Turnaround | -15.0 | Public confirmed | Suncor Energy Inc., 2026 planned maintenance table (Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 investor presentations) (2026-04-01) |
| Oct 2026 to Dec 2026 (quarter precision) | Turnaround | -5.0 | Public confirmed | Suncor Energy Inc., 2026 planned maintenance table (Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 investor presentations) (2026-04-01) |
Pattern-indicated entries are indicators only: they carry no volume and never enter model math. Math requires public-confirmed guidance.
Named assumptions: Suncor Energy Inc. facility. Actuals through 2026-05; Jun-Jul 2026 are blank until AER publishes them. The forecast repeats this plant's own seasonality; the pro-rata scaling only changes the level so the drill-down ties to the approved aggregate. Maintenance modeled down at this leaf: Suncor Base Plant Q4 bitumen maintenance, Nov 2026 -15 kb/d (quarterly event-rate; timing within Q4 unpublished, placed mid-quarter). Source: Suncor 2026 planned maintenance table (Q1 2026 investor presentation, 2026-04-01).
Named assumptions: Suncor Energy Inc. facility. Actuals through 2026-05; Jun-Jul 2026 are blank until AER publishes them. The forecast repeats this plant's own seasonality; the pro-rata scaling only changes the level so the drill-down ties to the approved aggregate. Maintenance modeled down at this leaf: Suncor Base Plant Q4 SCO and diesel maintenance, Nov 2026 -5 kb/d. Source: Suncor 2026 planned maintenance table (Q1 2026 investor presentation, 2026-04-01). Coker 8-2 redirect (approved 2026-09-23): this upgrader leaf carries a positive SCO offset for Syncrude bitumen redirected via the Suncor-Syncrude interconnect. Redirected bitumen = SCO_drop/0.843 (Syncrude observed yield) minus the mined dial-back, converted at 0.87 SCO yield. 2026-08: +7.2 kb/d (capped at +7.2: baseline 372.8 + uncapped 19.1 = 391.9 exceeded the 380.0 kb/d demonstrated headroom (Q1 2026 precedent, ~380 at 108% of ~350 nameplate); the uncaptured 11.9 kb/d SCO (13.7 kb/d bitumen) is not modeled); 2026-09: +49.3 kb/d; 2026-10: +14.3 kb/d. Source: interconnect precedent Q1 2026 (16.4 kb/d Syncrude bitumen to Base, Base at 108% utilization).
Confirmation status: model forecast; maintenance impacts enter the math only from public-confirmed guidance.
Base Plant SCO averages 351.0 kb/d over the forecast. At interconnected Suncor/Syncrude sites the model redirects part of the mine rate via the bi-directional interconnect during upgrader outages (Q1 2026 precedent), and flexible SAGD/PFT barrels tilt toward dilbit. Modeled maintenance peaks at Nov 2026 (+15.0 kb/d).
Basis: model-derived from the dashboard series above; no external view is added.
Suncor OSG
Source: AER ST39, oil-sands plant data (mined bitumen and SCO by facility)
Vintage: AER ST39 actuals through 2026-05, pulled 2026-09-22; forecast model _seasonal_baseline, built 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST39 plant reported. forecast: seasonal baseline, scaled pro-rata to tie to the ST3 mined bitumen line. Confirmed maintenance is deducted at this leaf after the baseline (see Why).
Suncor OSG
Source: AER ST39, oil-sands plant data (mined bitumen and SCO by facility)
Vintage: AER ST39 actuals through 2026-05, pulled 2026-09-22; forecast model _seasonal_baseline, built 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST39 plant reported. forecast: seasonal baseline, scaled pro-rata to tie to the ST3 upgraded production (SCO) line. Confirmed maintenance is deducted at this leaf after the baseline (see Why).
| Publisher | Dataset | URL | Published | Vintage / coverage | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST3: Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statistics | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st3 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 (latest file vintage 2026-08-27) | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST53: In-situ project data (BITUMEN sheet) | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st53 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST39: Mine and upgrader facility data | URL not recorded in repo | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-05 | 2026-09-22 |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Pipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment (open data) | https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/throughput-capacity/ | Monthly, ~3-month lag | Jan 2018 to Jun 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Company disclosures | Quarterlies, budget releases, investor presentations, earnings calls | URLs per record in annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml | As published | Forward maintenance calendar window 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-22 |
| Heavy Reading model | WCSB S&D dashboard build (21 granular leaves, grade layer, maintenance math) | No public URL (repo build) | Per build | Forecast built 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast built 2026-09-23 | 2026-09-23 |
Every number on this page traces to a row above. Anything missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.
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