Projects / Cold Lake

Cold Lake

Imperial Oil Resources Limited
Turnaround in model: Oct 2026 (+3.0 kb/d, Imperial Cold Lake 3Q/4Q 2026 turnaround)CSSIMO

OperatorImperial Oil Resources Limited
TypeCSS
TickerIMO
ST53 schemeCold Lake
DescriptionCold Lake is a cyclic steam stimulation (CSS) in-situ oil sands project operated by Imperial Oil. It is one of Imperial's three oil sands assets alongside Kearl and its Syncrude interest.
Source: Imperial Oil, Imperial provides 2026 corporate guidance outlook, via Business Wire, 2025-12-15
StatusOperating.
Nameplate capacity2026 production guidance of 152,000 to 160,000 bbl/d (gross). This is a guidance range, not a stated nameplate.
Source: Imperial Oil, Imperial provides 2026 corporate guidance outlook, via Business Wire, 2025-12-15
Start-up / phasesnot tracked in the public data used here
Ownership / JV splitImperial Oil Resources Limited owns 100% and operates Cold Lake.
Source: Imperial Oil, Imperial provides 2026 corporate guidance outlook, via Business Wire, 2025-12-15
Product and dispositionBitumen: flexible disposition, dilbit to market or upgrader feed (economically optimized)
Source: Dashboard grade-layer panel (leaf mapping lineage); disposition defaults from annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md
Process / technologyCSS (cyclic steam stimulation).
Source: projects.yaml project master, `imo_cold_lake` record, type: css
Froth treatmentnot applicable (in-situ / upgrading)
Interconnectsnot tracked in the public data used here
Growth / expansionsThe Grand Rapids development and the ongoing use of solvent-assisted and other optimization technologies support Cold Lake production; no new sanctioned capacity expansion disclosed in reviewed sources.
Source: Imperial Oil, Imperial provides 2026 corporate guidance outlook, via Business Wire, 2025-12-15
Company-disclosed maintenancePlanned turnarounds at Cold Lake in Q3/Q4 2026 were disclosed in the 2026 guidance. Specific durations not disclosed.
Source: Imperial Oil, Imperial provides 2026 corporate guidance outlook, via Business Wire, 2025-12-15
Operating costsUnit cash cost of C$21.39/bbl in Q2 2026.
Source: Investing News, Imperial announces second quarter 2026 financial and operating results, 2026-07-31

Blank "not tracked" cells are facts not present in the public data used here. They are labeled, never estimated. Filing-sourced facts carry their document name and date; where sources disclose multiple bases for one figure, all are shown.

Production

194.3 kb/d
latest actual, Jul 2026 (Cold Lake (Imperial))
199.5 kb/d
12-month forecast average, Oct 2026 to Sep 2027
Cold Lake (Imperial) monthly production Cold Lake (Imperial) monthly production kb/d 0.0 62.5 125.0 187.5 250.0 Aug 25: 205.6 kb/d Sep 25: 199.3 kb/d Oct 25: 187.8 kb/d Nov 25: 207.5 kb/d Dec 25: 207.1 kb/d Jan 26: 200.0 kb/d Feb 26: 207.3 kb/d Mar 26: 205.9 kb/d Apr 26: 197.7 kb/d May 26: 187.2 kb/d Jun 26: 203.2 kb/d Jul 26: 194.3 kb/d Aug 26: 188.6 kb/d Sep 26: 196.0 kb/d Oct 26: 198.1 kb/d Nov 26: 209.3 kb/d Dec 26: 208.9 kb/d Jan 27: 199.0 kb/d Feb 27: 201.6 kb/d Mar 27: 201.4 kb/d Apr 27: 196.3 kb/d May 27: 191.6 kb/d Jun 27: 197.6 kb/d Jul 27: 199.5 kb/d Aug 27: 191.6 kb/d Sep 27: 199.0 kb/d 199.0 Aug 25 Oct 25 Dec 25 Feb 26 Apr 26 Jun 26 Aug 26 Oct 26 Dec 26 Feb 27 Apr 27 Jun 27 Aug 27 Sep 27
Vintage: AER ST53 actuals through 2026-07 (ST39 through 2026-05), pulled 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast estimated, built 2026-09-23; forecast built 2026-09-22. Solid orange shading marks months with modeled maintenance on this series. Series: Cold Lake (Imperial).
Actuals (AER)Nowcast (model est.)Forecast (model)Modeled maintenance month
Latest actuals (kb/d)
SeriesFeb 2026Mar 2026Apr 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026
Cold Lake (Imperial)207.3205.9197.7187.2203.2194.3
First forecast months (kb/d)
SeriesOct 2026Nov 2026Dec 2026Jan 2027Feb 2027Mar 2027
Cold Lake (Imperial)198.1209.3208.9199.0201.6201.4

Full 26-month table with drill-down lives in the trading dashboard. Blank cells are months AER has not published yet, not zeros.

How to read Cold Lake (Imperial): Q4 2026 turnaround (-3 kb/d, Imperial guidance) is modeled down at this leaf for Aug-Dec 2026. Maintenance modeled down at this leaf: Imperial Cold Lake 3Q/4Q 2026 turnaround, -3 kb/d Aug-Dec 2026 (annualized guidance rate). Source: Imperial 2026 corporate guidance (via Oil Sands Magazine 2026-01-15).

Maintenance

In the model math

Forward calendar (Oct 2026 to Sep 2027)

TimingEventImpact kb/dStandingSource
turnaround_cold_lake_3q4q_20263Q/4Q 2026 turnaround, 3 kbd annualized (Imperial 2026 guidance); Q4 portion falls in the window. In offline_barrels.yaml.in offline_barrels.yamlIn model mathSee note

Pattern-indicated entries are indicators only: they carry no volume and never enter model math. Math requires public-confirmed guidance.

Outlook

Named assumptions: Q4 2026 turnaround (-3 kb/d, Imperial guidance) is modeled down at this leaf for Aug-Dec 2026. Maintenance modeled down at this leaf: Imperial Cold Lake 3Q/4Q 2026 turnaround, -3 kb/d Aug-Dec 2026 (annualized guidance rate). Source: Imperial 2026 corporate guidance (via Oil Sands Magazine 2026-01-15).

Confirmation status: model forecast; maintenance impacts enter the math only from public-confirmed guidance.

Market relevance

In-situ bitumen has flexible disposition (dilbit to market or upgrader feed). In the model, Cold Lake output is unchanged by upgrader outages and any upgrader-bound share is assumed diverted to dilbit, so its 199.5 kb/d 12-month forecast average is a steady contributor to marketable dilbit across the tradable window.

Basis: model-derived from the dashboard series above; no external view is added.

Related weekly notes

Sources

Cold Lake (Imperial)
Source: AER ST53, commercial scheme mapping (repo annotations/projects.yaml)
Vintage: AER ST53 actuals through 2026-07, pulled 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST53 scheme observed, grossed up by 1.27 to ST3 in-situ level (mapped projects cover 79.0%). forecast: _seasonal_baseline (trailing-12m mean x seasonal factor from last 3 complete years). Confirmed maintenance is deducted at this leaf after the baseline (see Why).

Full citation block

Sources
PublisherDatasetURLPublishedVintage / coverageRetrieved
Alberta Energy RegulatorST3: Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statisticshttps://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st3MonthlyActuals through 2026-07 (latest file vintage 2026-08-27)2026-09-22
Alberta Energy RegulatorST53: In-situ project data (BITUMEN sheet)https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st53MonthlyActuals through 2026-072026-09-22
Alberta Energy RegulatorST39: Mine and upgrader facility dataURL not recorded in repoMonthlyActuals through 2026-052026-09-22
Canada Energy RegulatorPipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment (open data)https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/throughput-capacity/Monthly, ~3-month lagJan 2018 to Jun 20262026-09-22
Company disclosuresQuarterlies, budget releases, investor presentations, earnings callsURLs per record in annotations/maintenance_forward.yamlAs publishedForward maintenance calendar window 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-222026-09-22
Heavy Reading modelWCSB S&D dashboard build (21 granular leaves, grade layer, maintenance math)No public URL (repo build)Per buildForecast built 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast built 2026-09-232026-09-23

Every number on this page traces to a row above. Anything missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.

Heavy Reading · the WCSB supply letter.
Public information only: AER ST3/ST39/ST53 and company disclosures via the WCSB S&D model. Nothing here is licensed data, so this page renders the same with or without ?public=1.