Cenovus Energy Inc.
Turnaround in model: Oct 2026 (+20.0 kb/d, Christina Lake F/G turnaround tail)SAGDCVE
| Operator | Cenovus Energy Inc. |
| Type | SAGD |
| Ticker | CVE |
| ST53 scheme | Christina Lake |
| Description | Christina Lake is a steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) project in northeast Alberta producing diluted bitumen. It is Cenovus's largest in-situ asset. It is a separate project from Christina Lake North (the former MEG Energy asset), which is tracked separately under meg_christina_lake; the two share the same ST53 scheme name but are different facilities with different ownership histories. Source: Cenovus Energy, Second quarter 2026 results, 2026-07-29 Source: Oil Sands Magazine, Christina Lake project profile, 2026-08-11 |
| Status | Operating. The Narrows Lake tie-back was integrated into the existing Christina Lake facility (Narrows Lake was originally planned as a stand-alone 130,000 bbl/d SAGD facility but was never sanctioned). Source: Oil Sands Magazine, Cenovus outlines optimization plans for its SAGD assets, 2023-07-27 |
| Nameplate capacity | Nameplate capacity of 260,000 bbl/d of bitumen, based on AER and facility-operator data. Note: secondary-sourced. Source: Oil Sands Magazine, Christina Lake project profile, 2026-08-11 |
| Start-up / phases | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Ownership / JV split | Cenovus Energy Inc. owns 100% and operates Christina Lake, effective May 17, 2017, when ConocoPhillips completed the sale of its 50% non-operated interest in the Foster Creek Christina Lake (FCCL) partnership to Cenovus. Source: ConocoPhillips, ConocoPhillips Completes Sale of Foster Creek Christina Lake Partnership Interest and Western Canada Deep Basin Gas Assets to Cenovus, 2017-05-17 |
| Product and disposition | Bitumen: flexible disposition, dilbit to market or upgrader feed (economically optimized) Source: Dashboard grade-layer panel (leaf mapping lineage); disposition defaults from annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md |
| Process / technology | SAGD, producing from the Wabiskaw-McMurray formation; product is diluted bitumen. Source: Oil Sands Magazine, Christina Lake project profile, 2026-08-11 |
| Froth treatment | not applicable (in-situ / upgrading) |
| Interconnects | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Growth / expansions | The Narrows Lake lease was developed as a tie-back into the Christina Lake central processing facility via a 17-km connection (about $300 million). First oil was achieved in July 2025; AER ST53 reports Narrows Lake as its own scheme, ramping from 1.2 kb/d in Jul 2025 to 80.2 kb/d in Jul 2026, above the original 20,000 to 30,000 bbl/d company guidance. Narrows Lake is tracked as its own model leaf (narrows_lake) with its forecast from observed history; no generic growth is added on top. Source: Cenovus Energy, Q3 2024 results news release, 2024-10-31, https://www.cenovus.com/News-and-Stories/News-releases/2024/2972380 Source: Source: Alberta Major Projects, Narrows Lake Tie-Back to Christina Lake, https://majorprojects.alberta.ca/details/Narrows-Lake-Tie-Back-to-Christina-Lake/11241 Source: AER ST53, verified 2026-09-23 At the separate Christina Lake North facility, the first of two new steam generators was expected online by year-end 2026, with redevelopment production expected to rise in the second half of 2026. See meg_christina_lake for the North facility. Source: Cenovus Energy, Second quarter 2026 results, 2026-07-29 |
| Company-disclosed maintenance | Maintenance work impacted production at Christina Lake in Q2 2023 (average 234,900 bbl/d in the quarter, down 2,300 bbl/d quarter over quarter); no additional maintenance was planned at the facility for the remainder of 2023. Planned turnaround frequency and duration not disclosed in reviewed sources. Source: Oil Sands Magazine, Cenovus outlines optimization plans for its SAGD assets, 2023-07-27 |
| Operating costs | not disclosed in reviewed sources |
Blank "not tracked" cells are facts not present in the public data used here. They are labeled, never estimated. Filing-sourced facts carry their document name and date; where sources disclose multiple bases for one figure, all are shown.
| Series | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christina Lake (Cenovus) | 393.7 | 390.8 | 381.0 | 390.3 | 376.2 | 403.8 |
| Series | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 | Dec 2026 | Jan 2027 | Feb 2027 | Mar 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christina Lake (Cenovus) | 340.9 | 359.3 | 352.4 | 360.2 | 365.6 | 362.0 |
Full 26-month table with drill-down lives in the trading dashboard. Blank cells are months AER has not published yet, not zeros.
How to read Christina Lake (Cenovus): Oct 2026 carries the Christina Lake F/G turnaround tail (-20 kb/d, assumed repo-carry), modeled down at this leaf. The Sep 2027 dip to 243.5 is a seasonal factor repeating prior Septembers, not a scheduled event. Maintenance modeled down at this leaf: Christina Lake F/G turnaround tail, Oct 2026 -20 kb/d. ASSUMED repo-carry, not company-stated: Cenovus Q2 2026 results (2026-07-29) state no Oil Sands maintenance planned in Q4 2026, and the next F/G turnaround is guided for 2031. Growth modeled up at this leaf: Christina Lake North expansion ramp, +4.1 kb/d Oct 2026 rising linearly to +19.3 kb/d Sep 2027 (+40 kb/d by Dec 2028). Source: Cenovus Q1 2026 results news release (2026-05-06). Approved 2026-09-23.
| Timing | Event | Impact kb/d | Standing | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 to Dec 2026 (quarter precision) | No turnaround in window (stated) | not stated (null, never estimated) | Guidance sourced | Cenovus Energy Inc., Cenovus announces second-quarter 2026 results (2026-07-29) |
| 2031 (year precision) | Scheduled (future window) | not stated (null, never estimated) | Guidance sourced | Cenovus Energy Inc., Cenovus Energy Inc. Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (2026-07-29) (2026-07-29) |
Pattern-indicated entries are indicators only: they carry no volume and never enter model math. Math requires public-confirmed guidance.
Named assumptions: Oct 2026 carries the Christina Lake F/G turnaround tail (-20 kb/d, assumed repo-carry), modeled down at this leaf. The Sep 2027 dip to 243.5 is a seasonal factor repeating prior Septembers, not a scheduled event. Maintenance modeled down at this leaf: Christina Lake F/G turnaround tail, Oct 2026 -20 kb/d. ASSUMED repo-carry, not company-stated: Cenovus Q2 2026 results (2026-07-29) state no Oil Sands maintenance planned in Q4 2026, and the next F/G turnaround is guided for 2031. Growth modeled up at this leaf: Christina Lake North expansion ramp, +4.1 kb/d Oct 2026 rising linearly to +19.3 kb/d Sep 2027 (+40 kb/d by Dec 2028). Source: Cenovus Q1 2026 results news release (2026-05-06). Approved 2026-09-23.
Confirmation status: model forecast; maintenance impacts enter the math only from public-confirmed guidance.
In-situ bitumen has flexible disposition (dilbit to market or upgrader feed). In the model, Christina Lake output is unchanged by upgrader outages and any upgrader-bound share is assumed diverted to dilbit, so its 357.7 kb/d 12-month forecast average is a steady contributor to marketable dilbit across the tradable window.
Basis: model-derived from the dashboard series above; no external view is added.
Christina Lake (Cenovus)
Source: AER ST53, commercial scheme mapping (repo annotations/projects.yaml)
Vintage: AER ST53 actuals through 2026-07, pulled 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST53 scheme observed, grossed up by 1.27 to ST3 in-situ level (mapped projects cover 79.0%). forecast: _seasonal_baseline (trailing-12m mean x seasonal factor from last 3 complete years). Confirmed maintenance is deducted at this leaf after the baseline (see Why).
| Publisher | Dataset | URL | Published | Vintage / coverage | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST3: Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statistics | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st3 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 (latest file vintage 2026-08-27) | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST53: In-situ project data (BITUMEN sheet) | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st53 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST39: Mine and upgrader facility data | URL not recorded in repo | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-05 | 2026-09-22 |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Pipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment (open data) | https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/throughput-capacity/ | Monthly, ~3-month lag | Jan 2018 to Jun 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Company disclosures | Quarterlies, budget releases, investor presentations, earnings calls | URLs per record in annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml | As published | Forward maintenance calendar window 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-22 |
| Heavy Reading model | WCSB S&D dashboard build (21 granular leaves, grade layer, maintenance math) | No public URL (repo build) | Per build | Forecast built 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast built 2026-09-23 | 2026-09-23 |
Every number on this page traces to a row above. Anything missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.
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