Canadian Natural Resources Limited
Pattern-indicated maintenance: Apr 2027 (indicator only, no volume in model math)CSSCNQ
| Operator | Canadian Natural Resources Limited |
| Type | CSS |
| Ticker | CNQ |
| ST53 scheme | Primrose and Wolf Lake |
| Description | Primrose is a cyclic steam stimulation (CSS) in-situ project in the Grand Rapids formation, 65 km north of Bonnyville inside the Cold Lake Air Weapons Range; the Wolf Lake development is also included in the facility. The project has operated below capacity since a bitumen flow-to-surface incident in spring 2013, which was deemed to be caused by excessive steaming; Canadian Natural has since modified steaming strategies, enhanced pressure monitoring, and moved to low-pressure steamflood remediation. Source: Oil Sands Magazine, CNRL makes plans to add 'low risk volumes' to its thermal portfolio, 2021-11-14 |
| Status | Operating. The facility received AER approval to implement low-pressure steamflood at Primrose East Area 1 (commenced, ramping as expected as of late 2014), with an application submitted for East Area 2. Source: Oil Sands Magazine, Canadian Natural Resources beats analysts' expectations for the third quarter, 2014-11-06 |
| Nameplate capacity | Nameplate capacity of 140,000 bbl/d of bitumen, including the original Wolf Lake development (revised figure). Note: secondary-sourced. Source: Oil Sands Magazine, CNRL makes plans to add 'low risk volumes' to its thermal portfolio, 2021-11-14 |
| Start-up / phases | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Ownership / JV split | Canadian Natural Resources Limited owns 100% and operates Primrose and Wolf Lake. Source: Canadian Natural Resources Limited, Q1 2026 results front-end, 2026-05-07 |
| Product and disposition | Bitumen: flexible disposition, dilbit to market or upgrader feed (economically optimized) Source: Dashboard grade-layer panel (leaf mapping lineage); disposition defaults from annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md |
| Process / technology | Primrose uses cyclic steam stimulation (CSS) to extract bitumen from the Grand Rapids formation; Wolf Lake uses SAGD. The AER approved a low-pressure steamflood at Primrose East Area 1, and an application was submitted for East Area 2. Source: Oil Sands Magazine, Canadian Natural Resources beats analysts' expectations for the third quarter, 2014-11-06 |
| Froth treatment | not applicable (in-situ / upgrading) |
| Interconnects | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Growth / expansions | Pad-add program: a SAGD pad at Wolf Lake came on production ahead of schedule in Q4 2024; two CSS pads at Primrose came on production ahead of schedule in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025; a further CSS pad was drilled and targeted to come on production ahead of schedule in late Q1 2025. Source: Canadian Natural Resources Limited, Q4 2024 and year-end results, via markets.financialcontent.com, 2025-03-06 One CSS pad was expected in Q3 2026 and two more in 2027. Source: Canadian Natural Resources Limited, Q4 2025 results front-end, document date not verified in this pass In 2025 the company reallocated a portion of pad-add capital from Kirby to Primrose following strong results from the recently drilled CSS pads. Source: Canadian Natural Resources Limited, Q1 2025 interim report, 2025-05-08 |
| Company-disclosed maintenance | not disclosed in reviewed sources |
| Operating costs | Canadian Natural discloses thermal in-situ operating costs on a portfolio basis, not by project: C$12.59/bbl in Q1 2026; full-year 2025 was C$11.09/bbl. Source: Canadian Natural Resources Limited, Q1 2026 results front-end, 2026-05-07 Source: Canadian Natural Resources Limited, Q4 2025 results front-end, document date not verified in this pass |
Blank "not tracked" cells are facts not present in the public data used here. They are labeled, never estimated. Filing-sourced facts carry their document name and date; where sources disclose multiple bases for one figure, all are shown.
| Series | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primrose and Wolf Lake (CNRL) | 99.2 | 93.9 | 92.8 | 93.7 | 91.9 | 113.5 |
| Series | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 | Dec 2026 | Jan 2027 | Feb 2027 | Mar 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primrose and Wolf Lake (CNRL) | 99.6 | 100.9 | 109.2 | 96.5 | 92.7 | 103.6 |
Full 26-month table with drill-down lives in the trading dashboard. Blank cells are months AER has not published yet, not zeros.
How to read Primrose and Wolf Lake (CNRL): Apr dip is seasonal (Apr flagged 6 of 16 years).
No maintenance events in the current model math for this project.
| Timing | Event | Impact kb/d | Standing | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2027 | Turnaround | not stated (null, never estimated) | Pattern indicated (indicator only) | None, ST53 seasonal dip analysis (repo-computed, AER ST53) (2026-09-22) |
Pattern-indicated entries are indicators only: they carry no volume and never enter model math. Math requires public-confirmed guidance.
Named assumptions: Apr dip is seasonal (Apr flagged 6 of 16 years).
Confirmation status: model forecast; maintenance impacts enter the math only from public-confirmed guidance.
In-situ bitumen has flexible disposition (dilbit to market or upgrader feed). In the model, Primrose and Wolf Lake output is unchanged by upgrader outages and any upgrader-bound share is assumed diverted to dilbit, so its 99.9 kb/d 12-month forecast average is a steady contributor to marketable dilbit across the tradable window.
Basis: model-derived from the dashboard series above; no external view is added.
Primrose and Wolf Lake (CNRL)
Source: AER ST53, commercial scheme mapping (repo annotations/projects.yaml)
Vintage: AER ST53 actuals through 2026-07, pulled 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST53 scheme observed, grossed up by 1.27 to ST3 in-situ level (mapped projects cover 79.0%). forecast: _seasonal_baseline (trailing-12m mean x seasonal factor from last 3 complete years).
| Publisher | Dataset | URL | Published | Vintage / coverage | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST3: Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statistics | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st3 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 (latest file vintage 2026-08-27) | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST53: In-situ project data (BITUMEN sheet) | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st53 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST39: Mine and upgrader facility data | URL not recorded in repo | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-05 | 2026-09-22 |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Pipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment (open data) | https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/throughput-capacity/ | Monthly, ~3-month lag | Jan 2018 to Jun 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Company disclosures | Quarterlies, budget releases, investor presentations, earnings calls | URLs per record in annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml | As published | Forward maintenance calendar window 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-22 |
| Heavy Reading model | WCSB S&D dashboard build (21 granular leaves, grade layer, maintenance math) | No public URL (repo build) | Per build | Forecast built 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast built 2026-09-23 | 2026-09-23 |
Every number on this page traces to a row above. Anything missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.
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