Canadian Natural Upgrading Limited
No modeled maintenance in the forward windowCSSCNQ
| Operator | Canadian Natural Upgrading Limited |
| Type | CSS |
| Ticker | CNQ |
| ST53 scheme | Peace River |
| Description | Peace River is a cyclic steam stimulation (CSS) in-situ project in the Peace River oil sands region, about 300 km west of the main Athabasca deposit. Canadian Natural acquired it (with the Cliffdale heavy oil field and the Carmon Creek thermal project) from Shell as part of the Athabasca Oil Sands Project transaction announced March 9, 2017. Source: Canadian Natural Resources Limited, Announces the Acquisition of Working Interest in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project and Other Oil Sands Assets, via BOE Report, 2017-03-09 |
| Status | Operating. The Peace River Complex is licensed to produce 12,500 barrels of bitumen per day (annual average). The Carmon Creek expansion received AER approval in April 2013 but was never built. Source: Shell, Construction moving forward at oilsands facility, 2013-11-13 |
| Nameplate capacity | Plant capacity of 12,500 bbl/d of bitumen. Note: secondary-sourced. Source: Oil Sands Magazine, Peace River project profile, 2026-09-23 Source: commercial storage, Peace River/Carmon Creek asset report, 2025-09-09 |
| Start-up / phases | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Ownership / JV split | Canadian Natural Resources Limited owns 100% and operates Peace River. Source: commercial storage, Peace River/Carmon Creek asset report, 2025-09-09 |
| Product and disposition | Bitumen: flexible disposition, dilbit to market or upgrader feed (economically optimized) Source: Dashboard grade-layer panel (leaf mapping lineage); disposition defaults from annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md |
| Process / technology | CSS with horizontal wells, producing from the Bluesky formation. The adjacent Cliffdale field produces by primary production techniques. Source: commercial storage, Peace River/Carmon Creek asset report, 2025-09-09 Source: Canadian Natural Resources Limited, acquisition announcement, via GlobeNewswire, 2017-03-09 |
| Froth treatment | not applicable (in-situ / upgrading) |
| Interconnects | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Growth / expansions | The Carmon Creek expansion (Shell's project, targeting 80,000 bbl/d with two central processing facilities) received AER approval in April 2013 but was never sanctioned or built; it remains an undeveloped option associated with the Peace River complex. Source: Shell, Construction moving forward at oilsands facility, 2013-11-13 Canadian Natural said the Carmon Creek thermal project would be reviewed for future development at the time of the 2017 acquisition. No sanctioned expansion disclosed in reviewed sources. Source: Canadian Natural Resources Limited, Announces the Acquisition of Working Interest in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project and Other Oil Sands Assets, via BOE Report, 2017-03-09 |
| Company-disclosed maintenance | not disclosed in reviewed sources |
| Operating costs | not disclosed in reviewed sources |
Blank "not tracked" cells are facts not present in the public data used here. They are labeled, never estimated. Filing-sourced facts carry their document name and date; where sources disclose multiple bases for one figure, all are shown.
| Series | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peace River (CNRL) | 3.6 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 4.4 |
| Series | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 | Dec 2026 | Jan 2027 | Feb 2027 | Mar 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peace River (CNRL) | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
Full 26-month table with drill-down lives in the trading dashboard. Blank cells are months AER has not published yet, not zeros.
How to read Peace River (CNRL): Seasonal baseline off a 2.9 kb/d trailing-12m baseline. No 2027 turnaround statements; single-month dips are seasonal factors repeating the last 3 years.
No maintenance events in the current model math for this project.
No forward-calendar entries for this project in annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml.
Named assumptions: Seasonal baseline off a 2.9 kb/d trailing-12m baseline. No 2027 turnaround statements; single-month dips are seasonal factors repeating the last 3 years.
Confirmation status: model forecast; maintenance impacts enter the math only from public-confirmed guidance.
In-situ bitumen has flexible disposition (dilbit to market or upgrader feed). In the model, Peace River output is unchanged by upgrader outages and any upgrader-bound share is assumed diverted to dilbit, so its 3.7 kb/d 12-month forecast average is a steady contributor to marketable dilbit across the tradable window.
Basis: model-derived from the dashboard series above; no external view is added.
Peace River (CNRL)
Source: AER ST53, commercial scheme mapping (repo annotations/projects.yaml)
Vintage: AER ST53 actuals through 2026-07, pulled 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST53 scheme observed, grossed up by 1.27 to ST3 in-situ level (mapped projects cover 79.0%). forecast: _seasonal_baseline (trailing-12m mean x seasonal factor from last 3 complete years).
| Publisher | Dataset | URL | Published | Vintage / coverage | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST3: Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statistics | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st3 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 (latest file vintage 2026-08-27) | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST53: In-situ project data (BITUMEN sheet) | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st53 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST39: Mine and upgrader facility data | URL not recorded in repo | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-05 | 2026-09-22 |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Pipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment (open data) | https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/throughput-capacity/ | Monthly, ~3-month lag | Jan 2018 to Jun 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Company disclosures | Quarterlies, budget releases, investor presentations, earnings calls | URLs per record in annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml | As published | Forward maintenance calendar window 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-22 |
| Heavy Reading model | WCSB S&D dashboard build (21 granular leaves, grade layer, maintenance math) | No public URL (repo build) | Per build | Forecast built 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast built 2026-09-23 | 2026-09-23 |
Every number on this page traces to a row above. Anything missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.
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