Canadian Natural Resources Limited
Turnaround in model: Oct 2026 (+119.0 kb/d, Horizon 35-day turnaround)Integrated (mine + upgrader)CNQ
| Operator | Canadian Natural Resources Limited |
| Type | Integrated (mine + upgrader) |
| Ticker | CNQ |
| ST53 scheme | not in ST53 |
| Description | Horizon is an integrated oil sands mining and upgrading project north of Fort McMurray. Mined bitumen is upgraded on site to synthetic crude oil (SCO). Canadian Natural reports three distinct capacity bases for Horizon: mined-bitumen capacity, operating SCO capacity, and regulatory SCO nameplate. These are different figures and must not be mixed. Source: Oil Sands Magazine, CNRL Horizon Mine project profile, 2026-09-23 Source: Canadian Natural Resources Limited, Q1 2025 interim report, 2025-05-08 |
| Status | Operating. The NRUTT (Naphtha Recovery Unit Tailings Treatment) project is sanctioned with a Q3 2027 in-service target. Source: BOE Report, Canadian Natural Resources Limited announces 2026 budget, 2025-12-16 |
| Nameplate capacity | Mined-bitumen capacity of 314,000 bbl/d. Source: Oil Sands Magazine, CNRL Horizon Mine project profile, 2026-09-23 SCO operating capacity of 264,000 bbl/d, following the 2024 Reliability Enhancement Project. Source: Canadian Natural Resources Limited, Q1 2025 interim report, 2025-05-08 Regulatory SCO nameplate of 271,000 bbl/d. Note: secondary-sourced. Source: Oil Sands Magazine, 2026 production forecast: oil sands mining and upgrading, 2026-01-15 Demonstrated peaks exceed all three stated bases: 309,800 bbl/d SCO in November 2025 and 333,300 bbl/d mined bitumen in May 2026 (AER ST39, "CNRL HORIZON OIL SANDS PROJECT", Production). The model's capacity reference for headroom/utilization math uses these demonstrated peaks; the three stated bases are recorded as stated. Per the standing rule, where actuals beat announced capacity, history wins. Mine-bitumen capacity and upgrader SCO capacity are kept as separate lines, never blended. |
| Start-up / phases | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Ownership / JV split | Canadian Natural Resources Limited owns 100% of the Horizon mine and upgrader and is the operator. Canadian Natural acquired the remaining working interests in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project assets from Shell and Marathon, and since March 1, 2025 it holds 100% of the Albian mines (Jackpine and Muskeg River). It also holds an 80% non-operated interest in the Scotford Upgrader (Shell 20%, operator), a separate upgrading asset. Source: Canadian Natural Resources Limited, acquisition announcement, via BOE Report, 2017-03-09 |
| Product and disposition | SCO from the upgrader; mined bitumen to the upgrader (froth treatment NFT: upgrader-locked, cannot meet pipeline dilbit spec) Source: annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md |
| Process / technology | Open-pit mining with naphtha froth treatment (NFT); mined bitumen is upgrader-locked and is upgraded on site to SCO. Note: NFT classification is secondary-sourced research. Source: project technology research compilation, 2026-09-23 |
| Froth treatment | NFT (naphthenic froth treatment): upgrader-locked Source: annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md |
| Interconnects | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Growth / expansions | The NRUTT (Naphtha Recovery Unit Tailings Treatment) project targets an incremental 6,300 bbl/d of SCO in Q3 2027. APPLIED 2026-09-23 (the editor): +6.3 kb/d step change on the Horizon SCO leaf for Jul-Sep 2027 (the Q3/27 months in the Oct 2026-Sep 2027 forecast window); step change, not a ramp. The previously flagged implied ~277,300 bbl/d post-NRUTT nameplate is moot: demonstrated ST39 peak is 309.8 kb/d SCO (2025-11) and history wins per the standing rule, so only the +6.3 increment is modeled. (Source: Canadian Natural Resources Limited, "Canadian Natural Resources Limited Announces 2026 Budget", 2025-12-16: "At Horizon, the Company is progressing its Naphtha Recovery Unit Tailings Treatment ("NRUTT") project that targets incremental production in Q3/27 of approximately 6,300 bbl/d of SCO following mechanical completion."; verbatim company release text via newswire mirrors including https://www.advfn.com/stock-market/TSX/CNQ/stock-news/97449467/canadian-natural-resources-limited-announces-2026) In November 2025 Canadian Natural unveiled over $15 billion in oil sands expansion plans; project-level allocation to Horizon was not detailed in the reviewed summary. Source: Oil Sands Magazine, 2025-11-11, referenced in the Peace River project profile, accessed 2026-09-23, https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/projects/cnrl-peace-river |
| Company-disclosed maintenance | A 35-day turnaround begins September 2026, with an annual-average impact of 29,000 bbl/d. The turnaround runs on a two-year cycle, with the next one targeted for 2028. Source: BOE Report, Canadian Natural Resources Limited announces 2026 budget, 2025-12-16 |
| Operating costs | Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading operating cost of C$21.88/bbl of SCO in Q1 2025 (segment basis covering Horizon, not project-allocated). Source: Canadian Natural Resources Limited, Q1 2025 interim report, 2025-05-08 |
Blank "not tracked" cells are facts not present in the public data used here. They are labeled, never estimated. Filing-sourced facts carry their document name and date; where sources disclose multiple bases for one figure, all are shown.
| Series | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon (CNRL) | 303.9 | 287.1 | 313.3 | 333.3 | n/a | n/a |
| Horizon (CNRL) | 273.2 | 247.5 | 288.4 | 285.3 | n/a | n/a |
| Series | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 | Dec 2026 | Jan 2027 | Feb 2027 | Mar 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon (CNRL) | 217.9 | 345.6 | 348.1 | 295.6 | 310.3 | 318.7 |
| Horizon (CNRL) | 308.5 | 317.8 | 315.6 | 265.5 | 283.8 | 290.7 |
Full 26-month table with drill-down lives in the trading dashboard. Blank cells are months AER has not published yet, not zeros.
How to read Horizon (CNRL): Canadian Natural Resources Limited facility. Actuals through 2026-05; Jun-Jul 2026 are blank until AER publishes them. The forecast repeats this plant's own seasonality; the pro-rata scaling only changes the level so the drill-down ties to the approved aggregate. Maintenance modeled down at this leaf: Horizon 35-day turnaround (started Sep 8 2026). Sep 2026 -230 kb/d (September bridge per editorial ruling 2026-09-22 on CNRL 2026 budget guidance); Oct 2026 -119 kb/d (Oct 1-12 residual tail). Source: CNRL 2026 budget (2025-12-16) + editorial ruling 2026-09-22. The Maintenance offline memo row shows the same outage for reference; it is not subtracted again.
How to read Horizon (CNRL): Canadian Natural Resources Limited facility. Actuals through 2026-05; Jun-Jul 2026 are blank until AER publishes them. The forecast repeats this plant's own seasonality; the pro-rata scaling only changes the level so the drill-down ties to the approved aggregate. Growth modeled up at this leaf: Horizon NRUTT (Naphtha Recovery Unit Tailings Treatment) +6.3 kb/d SCO step change for Jul-Sep 2027, the Q3/27 months in the forecast window. Source: CNRL 2026 budget news release (2025-12-16). Approved 2026-09-23. The implied ~277,300 bbl/d post-NRUTT nameplate is not used: demonstrated ST39 peak is 309.8 kb/d SCO (2025-11) and history wins, so only the +6.3 increment is modeled.
| Timing | Event | Impact kb/d | Standing | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| turnaround_horizon_sep_oct_2026 | 35-day turnaround began 2026-09-08, ~-29 kb/d annualized (CNRL Q2 2026 results); runs to ~2026-10-12, overlapping the window Oct 1-12. In offline_barrels.yaml. | in offline_barrels.yaml | In model math | See note |
| 2028 (year precision) | Scheduled (future window) | not stated (null, never estimated) | Guidance sourced | Canadian Natural Resources Limited, 2026 Budget press release (2025-12-16) |
Pattern-indicated entries are indicators only: they carry no volume and never enter model math. Math requires public-confirmed guidance.
Named assumptions: Canadian Natural Resources Limited facility. Actuals through 2026-05; Jun-Jul 2026 are blank until AER publishes them. The forecast repeats this plant's own seasonality; the pro-rata scaling only changes the level so the drill-down ties to the approved aggregate. Maintenance modeled down at this leaf: Horizon 35-day turnaround (started Sep 8 2026). Sep 2026 -230 kb/d (September bridge per editorial ruling 2026-09-22 on CNRL 2026 budget guidance); Oct 2026 -119 kb/d (Oct 1-12 residual tail). Source: CNRL 2026 budget (2025-12-16) + editorial ruling 2026-09-22. The Maintenance offline memo row shows the same outage for reference; it is not subtracted again.
Named assumptions: Canadian Natural Resources Limited facility. Actuals through 2026-05; Jun-Jul 2026 are blank until AER publishes them. The forecast repeats this plant's own seasonality; the pro-rata scaling only changes the level so the drill-down ties to the approved aggregate. Growth modeled up at this leaf: Horizon NRUTT (Naphtha Recovery Unit Tailings Treatment) +6.3 kb/d SCO step change for Jul-Sep 2027, the Q3/27 months in the forecast window. Source: CNRL 2026 budget news release (2025-12-16). Approved 2026-09-23. The implied ~277,300 bbl/d post-NRUTT nameplate is not used: demonstrated ST39 peak is 309.8 kb/d SCO (2025-11) and history wins, so only the +6.3 increment is modeled.
Confirmation status: model forecast; maintenance impacts enter the math only from public-confirmed guidance.
Horizon SCO averages 282.7 kb/d over the forecast. Horizon has no documented third-party interconnect, so the model dials mine and upgrader back together during turnarounds: SCO supply tightens one-for-one with the modeled outage. Modeled maintenance peaks at Oct 2026 (+119.0 kb/d).
Basis: model-derived from the dashboard series above; no external view is added.
Horizon (CNRL)
Source: AER ST39, oil-sands plant data (mined bitumen and SCO by facility)
Vintage: AER ST39 actuals through 2026-05, pulled 2026-09-22; forecast model _seasonal_baseline, built 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST39 plant reported. forecast: seasonal baseline, scaled pro-rata to tie to the ST3 mined bitumen line. Confirmed maintenance is deducted at this leaf after the baseline (see Why).
Horizon (CNRL)
Source: AER ST39, oil-sands plant data (mined bitumen and SCO by facility)
Vintage: AER ST39 actuals through 2026-05, pulled 2026-09-22; forecast model _seasonal_baseline, built 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST39 plant reported. forecast: seasonal baseline, scaled pro-rata to tie to the ST3 upgraded production (SCO) line.
| Publisher | Dataset | URL | Published | Vintage / coverage | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST3: Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statistics | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st3 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 (latest file vintage 2026-08-27) | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST53: In-situ project data (BITUMEN sheet) | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st53 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST39: Mine and upgrader facility data | URL not recorded in repo | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-05 | 2026-09-22 |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Pipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment (open data) | https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/throughput-capacity/ | Monthly, ~3-month lag | Jan 2018 to Jun 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Company disclosures | Quarterlies, budget releases, investor presentations, earnings calls | URLs per record in annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml | As published | Forward maintenance calendar window 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-22 |
| Heavy Reading model | WCSB S&D dashboard build (21 granular leaves, grade layer, maintenance math) | No public URL (repo build) | Per build | Forecast built 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast built 2026-09-23 | 2026-09-23 |
Every number on this page traces to a row above. Anything missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.
?public=1.