Athabasca Oil Corporation
Pattern-indicated maintenance: May 2027 (indicator only, no volume in model math)SAGDATH
| Operator | Athabasca Oil Corporation |
| Type | SAGD |
| Ticker | ATH |
| ST53 scheme | Leismer |
| Description | Leismer is a steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) oil sands project in the Athabasca region, operated by Athabasca Oil Corporation. It is undergoing an expansion to 40,000 bbl/d by end of 2027. Source: Athabasca Oil Corporation, Athabasca Oil Announces its 2026 Budget Focused on Production and Cash Flow Per Share Growth, via GlobeNewswire, 2025-12-11 |
| Status | Operating. The 40,000 bbl/d expansion is under construction; a later phase (Phase 1) was not sanctioned as of Q2 2026. Source: Athabasca Oil Corporation, Q2 2026 press release, 2026-07-29 |
| Nameplate capacity | Expansion targets 40,000 bbl/d of production by end of 2027, on a ~$300 million expansion project at about $25,000/bbl/d capital efficiency. Source: Athabasca Oil Corporation, Athabasca Oil Announces its 2026 Budget Focused on Production and Cash Flow Per Share Growth, via GlobeNewswire, 2025-12-11 |
| Start-up / phases | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Ownership / JV split | Athabasca Oil Corporation owns 100% and operates Leismer. Source: Athabasca Oil Corporation, Athabasca Oil Announces its 2026 Budget Focused on Production and Cash Flow Per Share Growth, via GlobeNewswire, 2025-12-11 |
| Product and disposition | Bitumen: flexible disposition, dilbit to market or upgrader feed (economically optimized) Source: Dashboard grade-layer panel (leaf mapping lineage); disposition defaults from annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md |
| Process / technology | SAGD. Source: Athabasca Oil Corporation, Athabasca Oil Announces its 2026 Budget Focused on Production and Cash Flow Per Share Growth, via GlobeNewswire, 2025-12-11 |
| Froth treatment | not applicable (in-situ / upgrading) |
| Interconnects | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Growth / expansions | The $300 million expansion project includes bringing on twelve new wells at Pads L10 and L11, adding two steam generators, heat exchangers, and increased fluid handling capacity. The expansion was expected to be substantially complete at end of 2026, with production growth to 40,000 bbl/d by end of 2027; capital and schedule were on track with original expectations. Source: Athabasca Oil Corporation, Athabasca Oil Announces its 2026 Budget Focused on Production and Cash Flow Per Share Growth, via GlobeNewswire, 2025-12-11 A later Leismer Phase 1 had not yet been formally sanctioned and awaited fiscal-framework confirmation as of Q2 2026; this is distinct from the already-underway 40,000 bbl/d expansion. Source: Athabasca Oil Corporation, Q2 2026 press release, 2026-07-29 |
| Company-disclosed maintenance | A three-week facility turnaround was completed in May 2026 (four-year interval); all tie-ins for the expansion project were also completed during it. The new well pairs began steaming after the turnaround. Source: Athabasca Oil Corporation, Athabasca Oil Announces its 2026 Budget Focused on Production and Cash Flow Per Share Growth, via GlobeNewswire, 2025-12-11 |
| Operating costs | not disclosed in reviewed sources |
Blank "not tracked" cells are facts not present in the public data used here. They are labeled, never estimated. Filing-sourced facts carry their document name and date; where sources disclose multiple bases for one figure, all are shown.
| Series | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leismer (Athabasca) | 34.2 | 32.7 | 32.3 | 7.5 | 30.0 | 32.6 |
| Series | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 | Dec 2026 | Jan 2027 | Feb 2027 | Mar 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leismer (Athabasca) | 33.8 | 33.7 | 34.0 | 32.5 | 33.1 | 33.8 |
Full 26-month table with drill-down lives in the trading dashboard. Blank cells are months AER has not published yet, not zeros.
How to read Leismer (Athabasca): May dip is seasonal (May flagged 4 of 9 years). Next routine turnaround on the stated 4-year frequency, around 2030. Growth modeled up at this leaf: Leismer expansion ramp, +1.5 kb/d Oct 2026 rising linearly to +7.0 kb/d Sep 2027 (+0.5 kb/d per month from Jul 2026, landing on 40.0 kb/d by Dec 2027). Source: Athabasca Oil 2026 budget news release (2025-12-11), confirmed on track in the Q2 2026 press release (2026-07-29). Approved 2026-09-23.
No maintenance events in the current model math for this project.
| Timing | Event | Impact kb/d | Standing | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2027 | Turnaround | not stated (null, never estimated) | Pattern indicated (indicator only) | None, ST53 seasonal dip analysis (repo-computed, AER ST53) (2026-09-22) |
| 2030 (year precision) | Scheduled (future window) | not stated (null, never estimated) | Guidance sourced | Athabasca Oil Corporation, Athabasca Oil Reports Strong 2026 First Quarter Results and Increased Cash Flow Outlook (2026-05-06) |
Pattern-indicated entries are indicators only: they carry no volume and never enter model math. Math requires public-confirmed guidance.
Named assumptions: May dip is seasonal (May flagged 4 of 9 years). Next routine turnaround on the stated 4-year frequency, around 2030. Growth modeled up at this leaf: Leismer expansion ramp, +1.5 kb/d Oct 2026 rising linearly to +7.0 kb/d Sep 2027 (+0.5 kb/d per month from Jul 2026, landing on 40.0 kb/d by Dec 2027). Source: Athabasca Oil 2026 budget news release (2025-12-11), confirmed on track in the Q2 2026 press release (2026-07-29). Approved 2026-09-23.
Confirmation status: model forecast; maintenance impacts enter the math only from public-confirmed guidance.
In-situ bitumen has flexible disposition (dilbit to market or upgrader feed). In the model, Leismer output is unchanged by upgrader outages and any upgrader-bound share is assumed diverted to dilbit, so its 35.6 kb/d 12-month forecast average is a steady contributor to marketable dilbit across the tradable window.
Basis: model-derived from the dashboard series above; no external view is added.
Leismer (Athabasca)
Source: AER ST53, commercial scheme mapping (repo annotations/projects.yaml)
Vintage: AER ST53 actuals through 2026-07, pulled 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST53 scheme observed, grossed up by 1.27 to ST3 in-situ level (mapped projects cover 79.0%). forecast: _seasonal_baseline (trailing-12m mean x seasonal factor from last 3 complete years).
| Publisher | Dataset | URL | Published | Vintage / coverage | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST3: Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statistics | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st3 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 (latest file vintage 2026-08-27) | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST53: In-situ project data (BITUMEN sheet) | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st53 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST39: Mine and upgrader facility data | URL not recorded in repo | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-05 | 2026-09-22 |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Pipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment (open data) | https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/throughput-capacity/ | Monthly, ~3-month lag | Jan 2018 to Jun 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Company disclosures | Quarterlies, budget releases, investor presentations, earnings calls | URLs per record in annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml | As published | Forward maintenance calendar window 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-22 |
| Heavy Reading model | WCSB S&D dashboard build (21 granular leaves, grade layer, maintenance math) | No public URL (repo build) | Per build | Forecast built 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast built 2026-09-23 | 2026-09-23 |
Every number on this page traces to a row above. Anything missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.
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