Cenovus Energy Inc.
No modeled maintenance in the forward windowSAGDCVE
| Operator | Cenovus Energy Inc. |
| Type | SAGD |
| Ticker | CVE |
| ST53 scheme | Narrows Lake |
| Description | Narrows Lake is a steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) project operated by Cenovus Energy Inc., developed as a tie-back into the existing Christina Lake central processing facility via a 17-km pipeline connection. It was originally planned as a stand-alone 130,000 bbl/d SAGD facility but was never sanctioned in that form. First oil was achieved in July 2025. AER ST53 reports Narrows Lake as its own scheme (approval 11798M in 2025, 11798O from 2026), with actuals ramping from 1.2 kb/d in Jul 2025 to 80.2 kb/d in Jul 2026, above the original 20,000 to 30,000 bbl/d company guidance. Source: Cenovus Energy, Cenovus Energy third quarter 2024 results, 2024-10-31 Source: Alberta Major Projects, Narrows Lake Tie-Back to Christina Lake Source: AER ST53, verified 2026-09-23 |
| Status | Operating. AER approval 11798M (2025 rows) and 11798O (2026 rows); the approval rows do not overlap in time. Source: AER ST53, verified 2026-09-23 |
| Nameplate capacity | Company guidance at sanction: 20,000 to 30,000 bbl/d via the 17-km tie-back, with first production targeted for mid-2025. Demonstrated output runs above it: AER ST53 actuals reached 80.2 kb/d in Jul 2026. Source: Cenovus Energy, Cenovus Energy third quarter 2024 results, 2024-10-31 Source: AER ST53, verified 2026-09-23 |
| Start-up / phases | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Ownership / JV split | Cenovus Energy Inc. owns 100% and operates Narrows Lake. Source: AER ST53, scheme Narrows Lake, operator Cenovus Energy Inc., verified 2026-09-23 |
| Product and disposition | Bitumen: flexible disposition, dilbit to market or upgrader feed (economically optimized) Source: Dashboard grade-layer panel (leaf mapping lineage); disposition defaults from annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md |
| Process / technology | SAGD; bitumen is processed at the Christina Lake central processing facility. Source: Cenovus Energy, Q3 2024 results news release, 2024-10-31 |
| Froth treatment | not applicable (in-situ / upgrading) |
| Interconnects | not tracked in the public data used here |
| Growth / expansions | No further sanctioned expansion disclosed beyond the tie-back ramp now in production. |
| Company-disclosed maintenance | not disclosed in reviewed sources |
| Operating costs | not disclosed in reviewed sources |
| Note | Tie-back into Christina Lake; separate ST53 scheme since Jul 2025. AER approval 11798M (2025) / 11798O (2026). |
Blank "not tracked" cells are facts not present in the public data used here. They are labeled, never estimated. Filing-sourced facts carry their document name and date; where sources disclose multiple bases for one figure, all are shown.
| Series | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narrows Lake (Cenovus) | 54.1 | 69.8 | 80.7 | 88.3 | 96.2 | 101.6 |
| Series | Oct 2026 | Nov 2026 | Dec 2026 | Jan 2027 | Feb 2027 | Mar 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narrows Lake (Cenovus) | 57.1 | 57.1 | 57.1 | 57.1 | 57.1 | 57.1 |
Full 26-month table with drill-down lives in the trading dashboard. Blank cells are months AER has not published yet, not zeros.
How to read Narrows Lake (Cenovus): Seasonal baseline off a 45.1 kb/d trailing-12m baseline. No 2027 turnaround statements; single-month dips are seasonal factors repeating the last 3 years.
No maintenance events in the current model math for this project.
No forward-calendar entries for this project in annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml.
Named assumptions: Seasonal baseline off a 45.1 kb/d trailing-12m baseline. No 2027 turnaround statements; single-month dips are seasonal factors repeating the last 3 years.
Confirmation status: model forecast; maintenance impacts enter the math only from public-confirmed guidance.
In-situ bitumen has flexible disposition (dilbit to market or upgrader feed). In the model, Narrows Lake output is unchanged by upgrader outages and any upgrader-bound share is assumed diverted to dilbit, so its 57.1 kb/d 12-month forecast average is a steady contributor to marketable dilbit across the tradable window.
Basis: model-derived from the dashboard series above; no external view is added.
No weekly edition to date mentions this asset by name.
Narrows Lake (Cenovus)
Source: AER ST53, commercial scheme mapping (repo annotations/projects.yaml)
Vintage: AER ST53 actuals through 2026-07, pulled 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST53 scheme observed, grossed up by 1.27 to ST3 in-situ level (mapped projects cover 79.0%). forecast: _seasonal_baseline (trailing-12m mean x seasonal factor from last 3 complete years).
| Publisher | Dataset | URL | Published | Vintage / coverage | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST3: Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statistics | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st3 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 (latest file vintage 2026-08-27) | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST53: In-situ project data (BITUMEN sheet) | https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st53 | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-07 | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST39: Mine and upgrader facility data | URL not recorded in repo | Monthly | Actuals through 2026-05 | 2026-09-22 |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Pipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment (open data) | https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/throughput-capacity/ | Monthly, ~3-month lag | Jan 2018 to Jun 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Company disclosures | Quarterlies, budget releases, investor presentations, earnings calls | URLs per record in annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml | As published | Forward maintenance calendar window 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-22 |
| Heavy Reading model | WCSB S&D dashboard build (21 granular leaves, grade layer, maintenance math) | No public URL (repo build) | Per build | Forecast built 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast built 2026-09-23 | 2026-09-23 |
Every number on this page traces to a row above. Anything missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.
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