Projects / Kearl

Kearl

Imperial Oil Resources Limited
No modeled maintenance in the forward windowMinedIMO

OperatorImperial Oil Resources Limited
TypeMined
TickerIMO
ST53 schemenot in ST53
DescriptionKearl is an open-pit oil sands mining project about 75 km northeast of Fort McMurray. It uses paraffinic froth treatment (PFT) to produce diluted bitumen (Kearl Lake Dilbit) with no on-site upgrader; diluent is supplied from Edmonton via pipeline and diluted bitumen is shipped to the Edmonton area by pipeline.
Source: Wikipedia, Kearl Oil Sands Project, 2026-09-23
Source: Canadian Mining Journal, OIL SANDS: Kearl expansion on line ahead of schedule, 2015
StatusOperating; approved for up to 345,000 bbl/d of bitumen.
Source: Ledcor, Kearl Oil Sands project page, 2026-09-23
Nameplate capacity345,000 bbl/d of bitumen recorded as the capacity basis (regulatory approval; ExxonMobil/Imperial 2013 startup announcement: ultimate production capacity about 345,000 bbl/d by about 2020). Demonstrated ST39 single-month peak of 347,800 bbl/d in July 2025 is 0.8% above basis, essentially at basis (metering noise); the capacity basis is unchanged at 345,000 bbl/d.
Source: Ledcor, Kearl Oil Sands project page, 2026-09-23
Source: ExxonMobil, ExxonMobil Announces Production Startup at Kearl Oil Sands Project, 2013-04-27
Source: AER ST39, verified 2026-09-23

The initial development (110,000 bbl/d) started production in April 2013; the expansion (110,000 bbl/d) was fully funded and targeted late 2015, with debottlenecking planned to reach the approved 345,000 bbl/d by about 2020.
Source: ExxonMobil, ExxonMobil Announces Production Startup at Kearl Oil Sands Project, 2013-04-27

2026 gross production guidance is 285,000 to 295,000 bbl/d.
Source: Imperial Oil, Imperial provides 2026 corporate guidance outlook, via Business Wire, 2025-12-15
Start-up / phasesnot tracked in the public data used here
Ownership / JV splitImperial Oil Resources Limited operates Kearl with a 70.96% working interest; ExxonMobil Canada holds 29.04%.
Source: Imperial Oil, Imperial provides 2026 corporate guidance outlook, via Business Wire, 2025-12-15
Product and dispositionDilbit to market (marketed grade: Kearl Lake Dilbit, KDB); swing barrels that can also feed upgraders
Source: Dashboard grade-layer panel (leaf mapping lineage); disposition defaults from annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md
Process / technologyOpen-pit mining with paraffinic froth treatment (PFT); no on-site upgrader. Using the proprietary paraffinic froth treatment process, the need for an on-site upgrader was eliminated, significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions versus a conventional mining-plus-upgrading configuration.
Source: Canadian Mining Journal, OIL SANDS: Kearl expansion on line ahead of schedule, 2015
Froth treatmentPFT (paraffinic froth treatment): sells dilbit directly
Source: annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md
Interconnectsnot tracked in the public data used here
Growth / expansionsImperial disclosed work intended to extend Kearl toward 300,000 bbl/d and to extend the turnaround interval from two years to four years.
Source: Imperial Oil, Imperial provides 2026 corporate guidance outlook, via Business Wire, 2025-12-15
Company-disclosed maintenanceA planned turnaround at Kearl in Q2 2026 was disclosed in the 2026 guidance. The turnaround interval is being extended from two years to four years. Specific duration not disclosed.
Source: Imperial Oil, Imperial provides 2026 corporate guidance outlook, via Business Wire, 2025-12-15
Operating costsUnit cash cost of C$29.83/bbl in Q2 2026.
Source: Investing News, Imperial announces second quarter 2026 financial and operating results, 2026-07-31

Blank "not tracked" cells are facts not present in the public data used here. They are labeled, never estimated. Filing-sourced facts carry their document name and date; where sources disclose multiple bases for one figure, all are shown.

Production

230.5 kb/d
latest actual, May 2026 (Kearl (Imperial))
295.1 kb/d
12-month forecast average, Oct 2026 to Sep 2027
Kearl (Imperial) monthly production Kearl (Imperial) monthly production kb/d 0.0 125.0 250.0 375.0 500.0 Aug 25: 325.8 kb/d Sep 25: 336.8 kb/d Oct 25: 276.3 kb/d Nov 25: 281.5 kb/d Dec 25: 317.0 kb/d Jan 26: 275.8 kb/d Feb 26: 288.1 kb/d Mar 26: 251.3 kb/d Apr 26: 288.0 kb/d May 26: 230.5 kb/d Aug 26: 319.0 kb/d Sep 26: 335.8 kb/d Oct 26: 303.8 kb/d Nov 26: 314.1 kb/d Dec 26: 321.3 kb/d Jan 27: 282.4 kb/d Feb 27: 267.2 kb/d Mar 27: 287.9 kb/d Apr 27: 296.8 kb/d May 27: 210.7 kb/d Jun 27: 289.7 kb/d Jul 27: 312.4 kb/d Aug 27: 319.0 kb/d Sep 27: 335.8 kb/d 335.8 Aug 25 Oct 25 Dec 25 Feb 26 Apr 26 Jun 26 Aug 26 Oct 26 Dec 26 Feb 27 Apr 27 Jun 27 Aug 27 Sep 27
Vintage: AER ST53 actuals through 2026-07 (ST39 through 2026-05), pulled 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast estimated, built 2026-09-23; forecast built 2026-09-22. Solid orange shading marks months with modeled maintenance on this series. Series: Kearl (Imperial).
Actuals (AER)Nowcast (model est.)Forecast (model)Modeled maintenance month
Latest actuals (kb/d)
SeriesFeb 2026Mar 2026Apr 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026
Kearl (Imperial)288.1251.3288.0230.5n/an/a
First forecast months (kb/d)
SeriesOct 2026Nov 2026Dec 2026Jan 2027Feb 2027Mar 2027
Kearl (Imperial)303.8314.1321.3282.4267.2287.9

Full 26-month table with drill-down lives in the trading dashboard. Blank cells are months AER has not published yet, not zeros.

How to read Kearl (Imperial): Imperial Oil Resources Limited facility. Actuals through 2026-05; Jun-Jul 2026 are blank until AER publishes them. The forecast repeats this plant's own seasonality; the pro-rata scaling only changes the level so the drill-down ties to the approved aggregate.

Maintenance

No maintenance events in the current model math for this project.

Forward calendar (Oct 2026 to Sep 2027)

TimingEventImpact kb/dStandingSource
Oct 2026 to Sep 2027No turnaround in window (stated)not stated (null, never estimated)Guidance sourcedImperial Oil Limited, 2026 Corporate guidance (via Oil Sands Magazine 2026-01-15) (2026-01-15)
2029 (year precision)Scheduled (future window)not stated (null, never estimated)Guidance sourcedImperial Oil Limited, Imperial Oil (IMO) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (2026-07-31)

Pattern-indicated entries are indicators only: they carry no volume and never enter model math. Math requires public-confirmed guidance.

Outlook

Named assumptions: Imperial Oil Resources Limited facility. Actuals through 2026-05; Jun-Jul 2026 are blank until AER publishes them. The forecast repeats this plant's own seasonality; the pro-rata scaling only changes the level so the drill-down ties to the approved aggregate.

Confirmation status: model forecast; maintenance impacts enter the math only from public-confirmed guidance.

Market relevance

PFT mine selling dilbit directly (Kearl Lake Dilbit (KDB)): 295.1 kb/d 12-month forecast average of marketable dilbit. PFT mines are the model's swing supplier.

Basis: model-derived from the dashboard series above; no external view is added.

Related weekly notes

No weekly edition to date mentions this asset by name.

Sources

Kearl (Imperial)
Source: AER ST39, oil-sands plant data (mined bitumen and SCO by facility)
Vintage: AER ST39 actuals through 2026-05, pulled 2026-09-22; forecast model _seasonal_baseline, built 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST39 plant reported. forecast: seasonal baseline, scaled pro-rata to tie to the ST3 mined bitumen line.

Full citation block

Sources
PublisherDatasetURLPublishedVintage / coverageRetrieved
Alberta Energy RegulatorST3: Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statisticshttps://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st3MonthlyActuals through 2026-07 (latest file vintage 2026-08-27)2026-09-22
Alberta Energy RegulatorST53: In-situ project data (BITUMEN sheet)https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st53MonthlyActuals through 2026-072026-09-22
Alberta Energy RegulatorST39: Mine and upgrader facility dataURL not recorded in repoMonthlyActuals through 2026-052026-09-22
Canada Energy RegulatorPipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment (open data)https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/throughput-capacity/Monthly, ~3-month lagJan 2018 to Jun 20262026-09-22
Company disclosuresQuarterlies, budget releases, investor presentations, earnings callsURLs per record in annotations/maintenance_forward.yamlAs publishedForward maintenance calendar window 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-222026-09-22
Heavy Reading modelWCSB S&D dashboard build (21 granular leaves, grade layer, maintenance math)No public URL (repo build)Per buildForecast built 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast built 2026-09-232026-09-23

Every number on this page traces to a row above. Anything missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.

Heavy Reading · the WCSB supply letter.
Public information only: AER ST3/ST39/ST53 and company disclosures via the WCSB S&D model. Nothing here is licensed data, so this page renders the same with or without ?public=1.