Projects / Surmont

Surmont

ConocoPhillips Canada Resources Corp.
No modeled maintenance in the forward windowSAGDCOP

OperatorConocoPhillips Canada Resources Corp.
TypeSAGD
TickerCOP
ST53 schemeSurmont
DescriptionSurmont is a steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) oil sands project in the Athabasca region. ConocoPhillips acquired TotalEnergies' remaining 50% interest and became the 100% owner and operator effective April 1, 2023.
Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor completes acquisition of TotalEnergies EP Canada Ltd., 2023-10-04
Source: ConocoPhillips, Canada fact sheet, 2023
StatusOperating.
Nameplate capacityAnnounced nameplate of 136,000 bbl/d of bitumen (ConocoPhillips, Q3 2014). Demonstrated output runs above it: AER ST53 peak of 157,400 bbl/d in March 2026, with recent months running 132,000 to 141,000 bbl/d. Per the standing nameplate rule the modeled nameplate is 157,000 bbl/d; Surmont runs above its announced nameplate.
Source: ConocoPhillips, Q3 2014 announcement
Source: AER ST53, verified 2026-09-23
Start-up / phasesnot tracked in the public data used here
Ownership / JV splitConocoPhillips Canada Resources Corp. owns 100% and operates Surmont, effective April 1, 2023, when it acquired TotalEnergies' remaining 50% interest (TotalEnergies' Canadian exit split its Surmont 50% to ConocoPhillips and its Fort Hills 31.23% to Suncor).
Source: Suncor Energy, Suncor completes acquisition of TotalEnergies EP Canada Ltd., 2023-10-04
Product and dispositionBitumen: flexible disposition, dilbit to market or upgrader feed (economically optimized)
Source: Dashboard grade-layer panel (leaf mapping lineage); disposition defaults from annotations/maintenance_disposition_history.md
Process / technologySAGD.
Source: ConocoPhillips, Canada fact sheet, 2023
Froth treatmentnot applicable (in-situ / upgrading)
Interconnectsnot tracked in the public data used here
Growth / expansionsNo company debottleneck program was found in primary sources; the above-nameplate output is demonstrated history, not a disclosed expansion.
Company-disclosed maintenancenot disclosed in reviewed sources
Operating costsnot disclosed in reviewed sources

Blank "not tracked" cells are facts not present in the public data used here. They are labeled, never estimated. Filing-sourced facts carry their document name and date; where sources disclose multiple bases for one figure, all are shown.

Production

167.8 kb/d
latest actual, Jul 2026 (Surmont (ConocoPhillips))
185.7 kb/d
12-month forecast average, Oct 2026 to Sep 2027
Surmont (ConocoPhillips) monthly production Surmont (ConocoPhillips) monthly production kb/d 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 Aug 25: 189.2 kb/d Sep 25: 180.6 kb/d Oct 25: 183.9 kb/d Nov 25: 191.2 kb/d Dec 25: 189.8 kb/d Jan 26: 187.9 kb/d Feb 26: 197.0 kb/d Mar 26: 199.3 kb/d Apr 26: 191.6 kb/d May 26: 178.2 kb/d Jun 26: 172.2 kb/d Jul 26: 167.8 kb/d Aug 26: 154.9 kb/d Sep 26: 159.5 kb/d Oct 26: 192.5 kb/d Nov 26: 192.5 kb/d Dec 26: 196.8 kb/d Jan 27: 189.4 kb/d Feb 27: 191.9 kb/d Mar 27: 192.7 kb/d Apr 27: 187.8 kb/d May 27: 192.4 kb/d Jun 27: 187.7 kb/d Jul 27: 190.4 kb/d Aug 27: 154.9 kb/d Sep 27: 159.5 kb/d 159.5 Aug 25 Oct 25 Dec 25 Feb 26 Apr 26 Jun 26 Aug 26 Oct 26 Dec 26 Feb 27 Apr 27 Jun 27 Aug 27 Sep 27
Vintage: AER ST53 actuals through 2026-07 (ST39 through 2026-05), pulled 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast estimated, built 2026-09-23; forecast built 2026-09-22. Solid orange shading marks months with modeled maintenance on this series. Series: Surmont (ConocoPhillips).
Actuals (AER)Nowcast (model est.)Forecast (model)Modeled maintenance month
Latest actuals (kb/d)
SeriesFeb 2026Mar 2026Apr 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jul 2026
Surmont (ConocoPhillips)197.0199.3191.6178.2172.2167.8
First forecast months (kb/d)
SeriesOct 2026Nov 2026Dec 2026Jan 2027Feb 2027Mar 2027
Surmont (ConocoPhillips)192.5192.5196.8189.4191.9192.7

Full 26-month table with drill-down lives in the trading dashboard. Blank cells are months AER has not published yet, not zeros.

How to read Surmont (ConocoPhillips): Aug 2027 dip to 122.3 is a seasonal factor. No 2027 turnaround statements from ConocoPhillips.

Maintenance

No maintenance events in the current model math for this project.

No forward-calendar entries for this project in annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml.

Outlook

Named assumptions: Aug 2027 dip to 122.3 is a seasonal factor. No 2027 turnaround statements from ConocoPhillips.

Confirmation status: model forecast; maintenance impacts enter the math only from public-confirmed guidance.

Market relevance

In-situ bitumen has flexible disposition (dilbit to market or upgrader feed). In the model, Surmont output is unchanged by upgrader outages and any upgrader-bound share is assumed diverted to dilbit, so its 185.7 kb/d 12-month forecast average is a steady contributor to marketable dilbit across the tradable window.

Basis: model-derived from the dashboard series above; no external view is added.

Related weekly notes

No weekly edition to date mentions this asset by name.

Sources

Surmont (ConocoPhillips)
Source: AER ST53, commercial scheme mapping (repo annotations/projects.yaml)
Vintage: AER ST53 actuals through 2026-07, pulled 2026-09-22; model nowcast (_seasonal_baseline + confirmed maintenance), built 2026-09-23
Method: actuals: ST53 scheme observed, grossed up by 1.27 to ST3 in-situ level (mapped projects cover 79.0%). forecast: _seasonal_baseline (trailing-12m mean x seasonal factor from last 3 complete years).

Full citation block

Sources
PublisherDatasetURLPublishedVintage / coverageRetrieved
Alberta Energy RegulatorST3: Alberta Energy Resource Industries Monthly Statisticshttps://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st3MonthlyActuals through 2026-07 (latest file vintage 2026-08-27)2026-09-22
Alberta Energy RegulatorST53: In-situ project data (BITUMEN sheet)https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance/data-and-publications/statistical-reports/st53MonthlyActuals through 2026-072026-09-22
Alberta Energy RegulatorST39: Mine and upgrader facility dataURL not recorded in repoMonthlyActuals through 2026-052026-09-22
Canada Energy RegulatorPipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment (open data)https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/open/energy/throughput-capacity/Monthly, ~3-month lagJan 2018 to Jun 20262026-09-22
Company disclosuresQuarterlies, budget releases, investor presentations, earnings callsURLs per record in annotations/maintenance_forward.yamlAs publishedForward maintenance calendar window 2026-10-01 to 2027-09-30, compiled 2026-09-222026-09-22
Heavy Reading modelWCSB S&D dashboard build (21 granular leaves, grade layer, maintenance math)No public URL (repo build)Per buildForecast built 2026-09-22; Aug-Sep 2026 nowcast built 2026-09-232026-09-23

Every number on this page traces to a row above. Anything missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.

Heavy Reading · the WCSB supply letter.
Public information only: AER ST3/ST39/ST53 and company disclosures via the WCSB S&D model. Nothing here is licensed data, so this page renders the same with or without ?public=1.