October 2026 to September 2027 · published 2026-09-22
Headline net offline sums confirmed items only. Bloomberg-schedule items with desk-only provenance are listed in the working file, not summed here.
October detail: Horizon 35-day turnaround began 2026-09-08; guided total loss 10,585 kb (29 kb/d annualized). September settled bridge accounts for 6,900 kb; October residual = (10,585 - 6,900) / 31 = 119 kb/d (approved editorial ruling). Syncrude Coker 8-2: ~50 days from 2026-08-20 (deferred from Q2); October 9 days at the implied event rate = -49 kb/d, proration shown in full in the working file.
Call color setting the tone: Cenovus EVP and COO Andrew Dahlin on the Q2 2026 call: a pretty light turnaround cycle in the upstream over the next few years, one or two lighter turnarounds each year, 5+ year cycle times. Imperial on Kearl: next planned turnaround not until 2029 (K2 train), on 4-year intervals.
| Month | Net offline kb/d | Key items |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | -188 | Horizon residual -119 (Oct 1-12), Syncrude Coker 8-2 -49 (to Oct 9), Base Plant -20 |
| 2026-11 | -20 | Base Plant bitumen -15, SCO/diesel -5 (Q4 window) |
| 2026-12 | -20 | Base Plant bitumen -15, SCO/diesel -5 (Q4 window) |
| 2027-01 | 0 | No confirmed turnarounds |
| 2027-02 | 0 | No confirmed turnarounds |
| 2027-03 | 0 | No confirmed turnarounds |
| 2027-04 | 0 | No confirmed turnarounds; Primrose Apr ASSUMED (no volume) |
| 2027-05 | 0 | No confirmed turnarounds; Firebag / MEG Christina Lake / Leismer May ASSUMED (no volume) |
| 2027-06 | 0 | No confirmed turnarounds |
| 2027-07 | 0 | No confirmed turnarounds |
| 2027-08 | 0 | No confirmed turnarounds |
| 2027-09 | 0 | No confirmed turnarounds; MacKay River Sep ASSUMED (no volume) |
Confirmed = company stated both number and timing. ASSUMED pattern indicators carry no volumes and never enter the math. Zero is a confirmed value for that month, not a claim nothing can break.
Source: Forward maintenance calendar, compiled 2026-09-22, annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml
ASSUMED (pattern-indicated, no volumes): Primrose April (6/16 years), Firebag May (5/16), MEG Christina Lake May (6/15), Leismer May (4/9), MacKay River September (6/7, strongest signal). Dips may include unplanned outages; the pattern marks likely timing, not a scheduled event.
Positive no-maintenance statements in window: Horizon (next 2028), Kearl (next 2029 K2), Firebag (~2031), Leismer (~2030), Christina Lake F/G (2031). The 2030/2031 dates are arithmetic from stated cycles, not quoted dates.
No forward statement found (research in progress): Jackfish, Kirby, Surmont, Fort Hills, Syncrude 2027, Base Plant 2027, Hangingstone assets, Orion, Lindbergh, Tucker, BlackGold, Long Lake upgrader, Cold Lake 2027, Peace River, PetroChina MacKay.
Source types: guidance (company stated), transcript (call quotes), seasonal_pattern (repo-computed from AER ST53), bloomberg_recon (Bloomberg First Word 2026 schedule via desk photo, not public).
A record enters the headline only when the company stated both the number and the timing (validation public-confirmed) or guidance with an approved editorial ruling (Horizon October residual).
Seasonal method: for each scheme, monthly bitumen vs trailing 3-month mean; a month flags when production dips more than 15% below that mean. A calendar month is pattern-indicated when it flagged in >=4 years and >=30% of observed years (ramp-up excluded).
Full lineage per record (company, document, date, URL, quote) lives in annotations/maintenance_forward.yaml.
| Publisher | Dataset | URL | Published | Vintage / coverage | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited | 2026 Budget press release (Horizon turnaround timing; next turnaround 2028) | https://boereport.com/2025/12/16/canadian-natural-resources-limited-announces-2026-budget/ | 2025-12-16 | 2026 plan; window Oct 2026-Sep 2027 | 2026-09-22 |
| Cenovus Energy Inc. | Q2 2026 results (planned-maintenance table; Q2 2026 earnings call transcript) | https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/29/3335023/0/en/cenovus-announces-second-quarter-2026-results.html | 2026-07-29 | Q2 2026; forward window Oct 2026-Sep 2027 | 2026-09-22 |
| Suncor Energy Inc. | 2026 planned maintenance table (Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 investor presentations); Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | https://api-gw-dev.stocktwits.com/earnings-api/v1/documents/b7e9767d-053f-4926-a9c7-651f1f4d5d03/slides.pdf | 2026-04-01 (table); 2026-08-05 (call) | 2026 plan; window Oct 2026-Sep 2027 | 2026-09-22 |
| Imperial Oil Limited | 2026 corporate guidance via Oil Sands Magazine; Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/market-insights/2026/1/15/2026-production-forecast-oil-sands-mining-amp-upgrading | 2026-01-15 (guidance); 2026-07-31 (call) | 2026 plan; window Oct 2026-Sep 2027 | 2026-09-22 |
| Athabasca Oil Corporation | Q1 2026 results (four-year turnaround frequency) | https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/06/3289532/0/en/Athabasca-Oil-Reports-Strong-2026-First-Quarter-Results-and-Increased-Cash-Flow-Outlook.html | 2026-05-06 | Q1 2026; forward window Oct 2026-Sep 2027 | 2026-09-22 |
| Heavy Reading (repo-computed) | ST53 seasonal dip analysis (pattern-indicated maintenance windows) | no URL on record | 2026-09-22 | AER ST53 through Jul 2026; window Oct 2026-Sep 2027 | 2026-09-22 |
Every number in this report traces to a row above. Any chart or table missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.
Physical supply/demand balance. Not a differential forecast and not validated as one. Licensed inputs stay in the private workspace and are never committed. Built 2026-09-22.