November 2026 injections · published 2026-09-22
Forward balance for the next tradable injection month. November 2026 injections trade October 1-31, 2026; October injections are closed post-noms. Pipeline run 2026-09-22 ~16:45 MDT; AER ST3 and ST53 actuals through Jul 2026, re-downloaded 2026-09-22.
Supply total 4481.2 kb/d against refinery demand 620.8 plus exports 4624.6 kb/d. The raw identity prints implied storage change of -476.8 kb/d, which is not a stock forecast: the simple public-data identity runs +439 kb/d low on average (stdev 45) against measured ST3 inventory changes for Jan-Jul 2026, a stable residual from the unmeasured legs.
Calibrated read: roughly -38 kb/d, flat-ish. Trade the shape, calibrate the level. October to November: supply rises 220.0 kb/d (4261.2 to 4481.2) as October's heavy maintenance lifts; exports rise 185.5 kb/d (4439.1 to 4624.6).
| Leaf | Nov 2026 kb/d |
|---|---|
| mined bitumen / SCO | 1745.9 |
| SAGD | 1718.3 |
| CSS | 326.7 |
| conventional | 690.3 |
| supply total | 4481.2 |
| less: maintenance offline (confirmed) | 23.0 |
| plus: diluent imports | 310.4 |
| less: refinery demand | 620.8 |
| less: exports | 4624.6 |
| = implied storage change (raw identity) | -476.8 |
| residual correction (mean +439, stdev 45) | +439 |
| = calibrated storage change | -38 |
Residual measured against ST3 actual inventory changes, Jan-Jul 2026; re-measured 2026-09-22. Raw level is not a stock forecast.
Source: WCSB S&D model pipeline run 2026-09-22 ~16:45 MDT; AER ST3 Oil current + ST53 actuals through Jul 2026 (re-downloaded 2026-09-22)
Headline net offline (confirmed): -20 kb/d for November 2026. Confirmed means the company stated both the number and the timing; every number carries its vintage date.
Both confirmed items are Suncor Base Plant Q4 2026 event-rate guidance, applied to each Q4 month with mid-quarter November timing assumed. The balance table's maintenance offline for November is 23.0 kb/d: the confirmed -20 plus 3 kb/d for Imperial Cold Lake Q4 (Imperial guidance, 3 kb/d annualized, labeled modeled not confirmed because Imperial's public guidance states no timing or number).
October was the heavy month: confirmed -188 kb/d (Horizon residual 119 kb/d Oct 1-12 per the 2026-09-22 bridge ruling, Syncrude Coker 8-2 to about Oct 9 at -49, Base Plant Q4 portion). Cenovus guided zero Oil Sands planned maintenance for Q4 2026 at the segment level (Q2 2026 results, 2026-07-29). No company-confirmed turnarounds exist anywhere for 2027 as of 2026-09-22.
| Item | Nov 2026 kb/d |
|---|---|
| Suncor Base Plant bitumen (mine side), Q4 window | -15 |
| Suncor Base Plant SCO/diesel, Q4 window | -5 |
| headline net offline (confirmed) | -20 |
Imperial Cold Lake bloomberg_recon (-6 event rate over Jul-Dec 2026, Bloomberg First Word schedule desk-supplied 2026-09-22) is not public-confirmed and is excluded from the math.
Source: Suncor 2026 planned maintenance table (Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 investor presentations), published 2026-04-01; forward maintenance commentary compiled 2026-09-22
CER vintage: June 2026, pulled 2026-09-22, ~3-month publication lag. Barrels injected in November travel November 2026 through January 2027. Egress flag: WATCH.
The pipe picture is tight and the spare is not evenly spread. Keystone's 36.4 and TMX's 33.8 kb/d are effectively zero for marginal barrels; Enbridge's 201.9 kb/d is the only real cushion, and the Mainline was still curtailing 12.4% of nominations in June. Keystone easing (apportionment 61% to 5%, May to June 2026, first time below 30% since April 2025) is the single new development; if it holds, one of the two binding constraints relaxed. TMX at 96.2% utilization is the tightest print since April 2026, apportionment at 0 every month since expansion startup: the Pacific valve is functionally at its limit.
Direction into November: supply ramps +220 kb/d from October while the pipe picture on the last published vintage adds no spare. Tight into the ramp, not looser. Rail is idle as a relief valve (CER crude-by-rail, May 2026 observation: 87,977 bbl/d vs the Dec 2018 peak of 364,893 bbl/d). PADD 2 runs are above seasonal norm (EIA v2 weekly, week ending 2026-09-11: 4,241 kb/d, 4-wk avg 4,343 kb/d, +307 vs norm).
| Route | Throughput kb/d | Capacity kb/d | Utilization % | Apportionment % | Spare kb/d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enbridge Mainline | 3075.5 | 3277.4 | 93.8 | 12.4 | 201.9 |
| Keystone | 552.1 | 588.5 | 93.8 | 5.0 | 36.4 |
| Trans Mountain | 865.6 | 899.4 | 96.2 | 0.0 | 33.8 |
| System | 4493.1 | 4765.3 | 94.3 | n/a | 272.2 |
Apportionment = fraction of shipper nominations curtailed. Enbridge figure computed from accepted vs original nominations; CER leaves its column blank.
Source: CER pipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment open data, Jan 2018 - Jun 2026, pulled 2026-09-22
November 2026 M1 basis: NULL. The desk cannot supply daily strips and nothing is fabricated. The forward curve beyond October is unobservable in the current stack.
Signal on the observed slope: BEARISH-BASIS (prompt barrels clearing weaker into the post-noms October barrel, per the desk's licensed ICE 1a transcription; exact levels are licensed and withheld from this public render). The read completes when ICE settlement retrieval is fixed or the desk supplies forward strips. WTI leg: null; EIA v2 futures (RCLC1/RCLC2) were discontinued with data ending 2024-04-05, and no public NYMEX delivery-month settles exist in the stack.
Invalidation: sustained widening past -2 $/bbl month-on-month stays bearish-basis; tightening past +2 flips bullish-basis.
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Nov 2026 M1 basis | NULL (no desk strips) |
| WTI leg | NULL (EIA v2 futures discontinued) |
| Signal | BEARISH-BASIS (realized slope only) |
| Forward November trade implication | No forward basis mark to anchor the November barrel |
Exact historical basis levels are desk-licensed (Eikon) and withheld from this public render; signals and vintages are referenced without the numbers.
Source: Desk records as of 2026-09-22: ICE 1a settle transcription (Eikon, licensed; numbers withheld) and desk strip availability (NULL)
First edition baseline: the standing narrative of 2026-09-22. Watch, not trigger.
The November barrel prices off a flat-ish calibrated forward balance of roughly -38 kb/d, October's heavy maintenance in the rearview, and a June-vintage pipe picture that is tight into the November supply ramp. Enbridge is still curtailing roughly one barrel in eight on the last published data, Keystone just eased for the first time in a year, and TMX has no spare left. The prompt basis slope is bearish, but there is no forward mark for the November barrel, so that read is on realized slope only.
There is no confirmed edge to lean into yet. The thing to watch through the October trading window is Enbridge apportionment on the next CER vintage: if it inflects higher while the builds run, the spring trajectory stops being a projection and starts being a position. If the ICE settlement fix lands and gives the desk real forward strips, the November basis read completes. Until then: watch, not trigger.
Physical balance only; it does not project differentials and never substitutes stale prices for current marks.
Supply leaves are forecast leaf by leaf from AER ST3/ST53 with a trailing-12-month mean times a three-year seasonal factor, then aggregated; never aggregate-then-forecast.
The implied storage change identity is supply minus maintenance offline plus diluent imports minus refinery demand minus exports; it ties to the printed decimal every month.
The raw identity runs +439 kb/d low on average (stdev 45) against measured ST3 inventory changes for Jan-Jul 2026; the residual is the unmeasured legs (domestic pentanes+ blended as diluent, other receipts, reporting adjustments, line fill, shrinkage accounting). The residual is re-measured each edition; trade the shape, calibrate the level.
Maintenance headline uses confirmed items only: company guidance or transcripts stating both the number and the timing. Bloomberg First Word schedule numbers (desk-supplied, not public) are listed with provenance but excluded from math. Seasonal-pattern indicators carry no volumes and never enter the math.
Injection-month M barrels trade during calendar month M-1 before Enbridge Mainline noms day; nomination dates are never invented; the brief leads with the forward balance for the next tradable injection month.
This public render spec embeds no licensed data: exact desk basis settles (Eikon) and commercial storage figures (commercial storage) are withheld; their signals and vintages are referenced without the numbers.
| Publisher | Dataset | URL | Published | Vintage / coverage | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST3 Oil current (crude oil and equivalent supply and disposition, Alberta) | no URL on record | None | actuals through Jul 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Alberta Energy Regulator | ST53 (in-situ project production) | no URL on record | None | actuals through Jul 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Suncor Energy | 2026 planned maintenance table (Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 investor presentations) | no URL on record | 2026-04-01 | Q4 2026 event-rate guidance | 2026-09-22 |
| Canadian Natural Resources | 2026 budget (Horizon turnaround timing and guided total loss) | no URL on record | 2025-12-16 | 35-day turnaround Sep 8 - ~Oct 12 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Pipeline throughput, capacity and apportionment open data | no URL on record | None | Jan 2018 - Jun 2026 (~3-month publication lag) | 2026-09-22 |
| Canada Energy Regulator | Crude-by-rail open data file | no URL on record | 2026-07-22 | latest observation May 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| U.S. Energy Information Administration | PADD 2 refinery runs, weekly (v2) | no URL on record | None | week ending 2026-09-11 | 2026-09-22 |
| WCSB S&D model (public-data build) | Forward physical S&D balance and maintenance commentary pipeline | no URL on record | 2026-09-22 | pipeline run 2026-09-22 ~16:45 MDT | 2026-09-22 |
| Macquarie desk records (licensed Eikon data) | ICE 1a settle transcription + desk strip availability | no URL on record | None | Sep 2026 final; Oct 2026 preliminary; licensed numbers withheld from this public render | 2026-09-22 |
Every number in this report traces to a row above. Any chart or table missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.
Physical supply/demand balance. Not a differential forecast and not validated as one. Licensed inputs stay in the private workspace and are never committed. Built 2026-09-22.