Q2 2026 · published 2026-09-22
Only the numbers that change the S&D balance. Full cards with quotes and lineage are in the working file.
| Operator | Production guidance | Turnaround disclosed | Growth / ramp |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNRL | Horizon TA: -29 kb/d annualized (2026 budget) | Horizon Sep 8, 35 days; next 2028 | Peace River acquisition; Primrose drilling |
| Suncor | 2026 maintenance table (Apr 1) | Syncrude Coker 8-2 deferred to Aug 20 (~50d); Base Plant Q4 -20; Firebag done | Firebag cycle to 5 years (next ~2031) |
| Cenovus | Oil Sands Q3 17-21, Q4 none (MBOE/d) | Christina F/G done Q3; Foster Creek Q2 done; Q4 zero | Christina North exp.; Foster Creek opt.; Narrows Lake |
| Imperial | Cold Lake 2026: -3 kb/d annualized | Cold Lake 3Q/4Q; Kearl nothing until 2029 (K2) | Kearl 4-year intervals |
| Athabasca | n/a | Leismer May 2026 done; 4-year frequency (next ~2030) | Expansion tie-in (no volume) |
| Strathcona | n/a | Nothing at Orion/Lindbergh/Tucker | None stated |
| ConocoPhillips | n/a | No per-project disclosure (standing gap) | None stated |
| Greenfire | 21.5-23.5 kb/d (pre-close); ~34 kb/d current post-close | Expansion TA done May 2026 | Connacher closed Aug 5; Pad 7/5SE first oil (no vol) |
| Harvest (KNOC) | n/a | No public disclosures (standing gap) | None |
| CNOOC | n/a | No forward statements (standing gap) | None |
| IPC | n/a | None (new plant) | Blackrod: first oil May 2026, ramp to 30 kb/d by end-2027 |
Stated guidance quoted or paraphrased with source; derived arithmetic labeled derived. Unknown = null.
Source: Company Q2 2026 results and earnings calls, compiled 2026-09-22
| Quarter | Project | Impact kb/d | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | Syncrude Coker 8-2 | -77 gross / -45 net SU | stated quarterly |
| Q3 2026 | Base Plant bitumen | -15 | stated event-rate |
| Q3 2026 | Base Plant SCO/diesel | -15 | stated event-rate |
| Q3 2026 | Firebag bitumen | -5 | stated event-rate |
| Q3 2026 | Christina Lake F/G | -60 peak | stated quarterly / peak est. |
| Q3 2026 | Cold Lake | -6 (3 ann.) | stated annualized, derived event rate |
| Q3 2026 | Horizon (Sep portion) | -230 | settled actuals |
| Q4 2026 | Base Plant bitumen | -15 | stated event-rate |
| Q4 2026 | Base Plant SCO/diesel | -5 | stated event-rate |
| Q4 2026 | Cold Lake | -6 (3 ann.) | stated annualized, derived event rate |
| Q4 2026 | Horizon (Oct residual) | -119 | derived, approved |
| Q4 2026 | Cenovus Oil Sands | 0 | stated segment-level |
| 2027 window | All operators | 0 guided | positive statements |
Bases differ by row; any total across rows is a mixed-basis guide, flagged as such. Q4 2026 guided drag is roughly -145 kb/d on that mixed basis (-15 -5 -6 -119), plus an unstated Syncrude tail into Oct 9.
Source: Company Q2 2026 results and earnings calls, compiled 2026-09-22
Horizon Sep/Oct 2026 turnaround settled in the model: Sep -230 (actuals bridge), Oct -119 (approved residual); next 2028.
Syncrude Coker 8-2 deferred from Q2 to Q3 2026 (-77 gross / -45 net Suncor). Kearl moved to 4-year intervals; Firebag to 5-year.
Leismer turnaround frequency stated as four years (next routine ~2030, derived). Christina Lake F/G completed Q3; Foster Creek Q2 turnaround completed.
Cenovus guided Q4 2026 Oil Sands maintenance to zero. Suncor Base Plant Q4 confirmed (-15 bitumen, -5 SCO/diesel). Imperial Cold Lake 3Q/4Q at -6 kb/d event rate.
Greenfire closed Connacher on 2026-08-05. Blackrod first oil May 2026, stated ramp to 30 kb/d plateau by end-2027.
Stated guidance is quoted or clearly paraphrased with source (company, document, date). Derived arithmetic is labeled derived and never presented as company guidance. Unknown = null.
Balance impact uses public-confirmed numbers only; guidance-sourced items stay flagged. Mixed-basis totals are labeled as such and never summed silently.
Operators on filings watch: Cenovus (incl. ex-MEG), Suncor, CNRL, Imperial, Athabasca, ConocoPhillips, Strathcona, Greenfire, Harvest (KNOC), CNOOC, IPC.
| Publisher | Dataset | URL | Published | Vintage / coverage | Retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited | Q2 2026 results; 2026 budget (boereport.com) | https://boereport.com/2025/12/16/canadian-natural-resources-limited-announces-2026-budget/ | 2026-07 (results); 2025-12-16 (budget) | Q2 2026; 2026 plan | 2026-09-22 |
| Suncor Energy Inc. | Q2 2026 MD&A (2026-08-04); Q2 2026 earnings call (2026-08-05); 2026 planned maintenance table | https://api-gw-dev.stocktwits.com/earnings-api/v1/documents/b7e9767d-053f-4926-a9c7-651f1f4d5d03/slides.pdf | 2026-08-04 / 2026-08-05 | Q2 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Cenovus Energy Inc. | Q2 2026 results; Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/07/29/3335023/0/en/cenovus-announces-second-quarter-2026-results.html | 2026-07-29 | Q2 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Imperial Oil Limited | Q2 2026 earnings call transcript; 2026 corporate guidance | https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/08/07/imperial-oil-imo-q2-2026-earnings-call-transcript/ | 2026-07-31 | Q2 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Athabasca Oil Corporation | Q2 2026 results (2026-07-29); Q1 2026 results (2026-05-06) | https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/06/3289532/0/en/Athabasca-Oil-Reports-Strong-2026-First-Quarter-Results-and-Increased-Cash-Flow-Outlook.html | 2026-07-29 / 2026-05-06 | Q2 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Greenfire Resources Ltd. | Q2 2026 release (2026-08-05); Connacher closing release | no URL on record | 2026-08-05 | Q2 2026 | 2026-09-22 |
| Oil Sands Magazine | 2026 production forecast roundup; project pages (Christina Lake North, Foster Creek, Narrows Lake) | https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/ | 2026-01-15 and various | 2026 guidance; project proposals | 2026-09-22 |
Every number in this report traces to a row above. Any chart or table missing its own source line is flagged in place; nothing ships with an unsourced number.
Physical supply/demand balance. Not a differential forecast and not validated as one. Licensed inputs stay in the private workspace and are never committed. Built 2026-09-22.